Barriers to punting profits

You may be surprised to learn that in terms of profitability, the worst performing barrier of all is the very inside. And six of the worst seven are barriers one to six inclusive. The reason for this is that punters are so convinced that inside barriers are advantageous, the sheer weight of money means they are in fact overbet. Which means you’ll back plenty of winners concentrating on inside barriers, but the odds will be so cramped that you’ll lose at a rapid rate. Here are the statistics for all metropolitan meetings last season (focusing on horses at $10 and under): The evenness of the winning percentage across all barriers will come as a surprise to many punters, as will the marked differences in profitability. It’s clear to see that barriers 1 to 6 were all significant losing propositions, while barriers 7 through 14 were all profitable with just one exception. Let’s put them into groups of four to get an overview: Barrier 1-4 = -14.4% POT Barrier 5-8 = -7.6% Barrier 9-12 = +3.6% Barrier 13&14 = +14.6% Gives a new meaning to the term bad barrier doesn’t it? The next time you fancy a horse drawn out wide, instead of putting a line through it like so many other punters, instead you should dig a little deeper. If it has tactical speed and is racing at a course and distance that is suitable then it may just be a good bet.