Flemington Race 5, 3:05pm
Group 2 Incognitus Blamey Stakes (1600m)
The lay of the land
Fair bit of debate about this strip of grass at the moment! The simple solution will be put in place tomorrow with the rail going out three metres, so it’ll race fairly across the track I think.
The speed story
There’s no real pace here. I thought Black Heart Bart would lead but he’s been pulled out this morning. Sir Issac Newton will roll to the front – they’ve announced that already – and they’ll slot in behind him.
In the mix
Palentino (Weir / Zahra) was terrific at Caulfield two starts back, then disappointing last time out. But all his best form at has been at Flemington over this trip, so I’ve rated him to his best here and he should produce.
He Or She (Hayes & Dabernig / Baster) was really good first up, and I think he can step off that and produce a good run here.
Sir Isaac Newton (Hickmott / Currie) had very good Timeform ratings out of Europe, and it looks like Lloyd will give him the standard couple of runs here bfore tucking him away for the Spring. He was good in the Caulfield Cup and there’s no reason why he shouldn’t run decently here.
Harlem (Hayes & Dabernig / Dee) is a mile-and-a-half horse from France and a little harder to get a read on. He didn’t look that great in the one jump-out he’s had here.
Tosen Stardom (Weir / Allen) is a good horse who arguably should have won the Makybe Diva in the Spring. He was in need of the 1400m run first-up at Caulfield, and the 1600m trip now is ideal.
Real Love (Weir / Yendall) needs further than this.
I’ve got Tosen Stardom on top, and by a fairly long way now that Black Heart Bart is out.
Trevor Lawson is a full-time professional punter with a highly successful record over 15 years. His Melbourne Ratings package gives you access to his early bets, assessed prices, speed map comments and betting strategies for all metro Melbourne meetings.