When Key Bets launched nine months ago, Shane Adair sat down with Cameron O’Brien to find out a little more about the man behind the membership.
What is your background in the wagering and racing landscape?
My family, for as long as I can remember, have been involved in racing in some way.
My grandfather was an SP Bookie and owner in the 1930’s and his claim to fame was having 2000 pounds on Phar Lap to win the 1930 Melbourne Cup. A huge bet at the time!
My father was a ratings analyst on Victorian racing and was a contributor to the Don Scott book “The Winning Way”. I have read all of the Don Scott books and I was fascinated by the thought of compiling my own ratings and analysis to horse racing.
I was fortunate to land a job with Mark Read when Darwin All –Sports was being set up and was one of 12 analysts working for them. Being able to use the teachings about racing from Mark and also the form study for my own work was a great advantage for me in learning the craft.
I took the plunge into professional punting in 2007 and now conduct ratings and analysis on all Australian and Hong Kong race meetings.
So which races do you look to bet into?
I look to bet between five and seven days per week. I focus on races with exposed form and on tracks with no major bias in them. When I’m looking to bet I’m looking to find my “Key Bets”. This is where, according to my analysis and ratings, the runners in those particular races identify as holding value. These are the races I feel I have an edge over the market.
Why do you focus on those races in particular?
I choose the races I think are the best betting propositions. I don’t like races with a lack of data (2yo’s, unraced horses), I don’t like races with a lot first up (guessing on their fitness) and I don’t like tracks that are too wet.
I like WA because of the drier tracks and QLD is often the same. Victoria has more racing and during the drier months there is always plenty to focus on. I also tend to go well when I look at NSW.
Why are you happy to sell your tips to the public?
Because the market is big and varied enough to allow subscribers to win as well as myself, while I receive a stable side income out of it that helps out with a large family!
How do you maintain an edge year after year?
By working very hard on my methods, and obsessing with making them better!
Are you ‘business as usual’ during a drawdown, or do you take a break, or reduce stakes, or…?
If it is a big drawdown I’ll reduce outlay with it, sometimes I will take a few days off because that does help. Freshening up your mind mentally during a losing period really does help you focus on what works.
What is your best tip you could give punters out there either new or old to the game?
My main tip for anyone, new or old, in the punting game is to shop around for the best price you can. With minimum bet rules in place for Victorian and NSW racing you are able to get on for a certain amount with bookmakers and it can be the difference between a winning or losing day, month or year.
I know looking at my figures I can return greater than 10% POT based on final tote prices. If I was recording my results based on what was available with bookmakers I could realistically gain an extra 10%+ POT by simply shopping around and getting in at the top of the market.
You will win some and lose some when taking a price. Some will drift further and some will firm, however if you can consistently get in at the pointy end your bottom line will be a lot better for it.
To celebrate Key Bets re-opening to new members, we’re offering a discount of up to 34% on your membership!
This is a LIMITED TIME offer and will only be available until Monday.
Take things to the next level and start punting like a pro today.