Cameron O’Brien’s Group 1 Kennedy Mile Preview

A pro-punter's runner-by-runner breakdown of the G1 on Derby Day

Spring racing Group 1 Kennedy Mile

This week’s Spring racing preview focuses on the Group 1 Kennedy Mile, at Flemington on Derby Day. This race used to be on the final day of the Carnival, but was switched a couple of years ago with the Mackinnon Stakes.

The last few winners of the race have been:

So, some pretty good figures in there! Has been a solid race all those years, and this years looks similar, should get a winner rating around those marks.

Here’s my speed map:

And I think there will be quite good pace on. I think CLIFFS EDGE rolls forward with SIEGE OF QUEBEC and they may end up handing up if any of those drawn wider also press on. We should end up with a truly run race here.

My prices on the race:

Please note, however, that I have priced ALL runners, to 100%, although only 16 will run. If it happens to be that the four emergencies come out, then the 14% market I have in the emergencies would need to be taken out, which makes all the others shorter.

Effectively, you would need to multiply all the runners in the race price above by 0.86 to obtain my final price (0.86 being 86% of current 100% market). So, Hartnell for example would go from $7.60 to about $6.50.

Speaking of HARTNELL, I will be backing him in all likelihood. I think he’ll be backable on the day, at least at the price I will require. He’s in solid form and he maps to get a great run. Value bets in the race at this stage look like being SIRRCONI and DREAM FORCE, both at longer odds.

Here is my runner by runner breakdown:

#1 HARTNELL

Is an 8yo now but racing well! Doesn’t have the peak he once did but he did do 119 in the Epsom and 116 in the Toorak LST when nothing much went right. Perfect draw to camp behind the speed and he should get every chance to do somewhere around that mark. His age is the problem but he’s in very solid form.

#2 LE ROMAIN

Won this race two years ago, in good form this prep, forgiving the Everest run on the very wet track, though he has handled those tracks before, best I could see would be 115 though.

#3 COMIN’ THROUGH

Came back to this prep well with a 114 first up in Syd winning, bit flat in last couple of runs though.

#4 LAND OF PLENTY

Current race fave but I can’t get him as short as the market. Went 114 winning really strongly LST and I have given him that again, but he will very likely need more than that 114 to win. The market thinks he can improve again, I can’t really give him more though and so have to bet around him.

#5 CRACK ME UP

Going fair this prep but drawn wide and so can’t give top, which is 113 earlier this year.

#6 DREAMFORCE

Solid chance, working up towards a peak, has a best of 113 and topped off well with the run LST going 110. Drawn wide but I have him mapping in. Have pushed up towards top.

#7 MISTER SEA WOLF

Is a 7yo and 113 is top but has done that recently. Likely be back on the rail, need luck from there but pace will be on. I can’t give him the full 113 though with age and map queries.

#8 NOIRE

5yo mare racing well this prep and has a solid base for 112 at some point, looks close to that now. McEvoy will need to go right back from the gate though, or else risk being caught wide, that’s my query on her here. Pace will be on however.

#9 LIFE LESS ORDINARY

Is a 7yo but back in good form. Went 110 LST running on well, has a best of 111, will be back again, have held at the 110.

#10 SIEGE OF QUEBEC

Racing in good form, has a best of 111 and MAY have a little more at some point however has had many runs now this prep. Should work across on pace as he did last start, however without improvement I think he’s just short of what’s required.

#11 CLIFFS EDGE

Racing well, has many 109’s and I think he has a 114 in him at some point. He went 109 at his 2nd start as a 2yo, meaning that is unlikely to be his career peak. LST finished the race solidly outdoing SIEGE OF QUEBEC in the Crystal Mile, that was 110, I have pushed him a little further, one of the hardest to beat.

#12 FASTNET TEMPEST

Has a best of 110 and racing solidly this prep at 107/8, I have pushed him up to 110 as it’s only his 2nd prep with Hayes, too, so we may not have seen his best yet. Would need at least 112 though to win and I can’t push him that high without seeing him doing it first.

#13 SIRCCONI

Solid win in the Moonga stakes LST rating 113, and if he can hold that he can be right in this. Maps to hold, slight penalty as it was a big new peak but right in this and I’ll likely be on as a value bet.

#14 PERAST

Went 110 LST racing wide in the Moonga, was more like a 112,however I map him wide again from the wide gate again! Not getting any luck with the draw. Would have a lot shorter if he’d drawn better.

#15 TOM MELBOURNE

Knowing Tom Melbourne he’ll probably come out and win this when not expected to… He’s an 8yo now, best this prep 111 and last prep 112, old figures are too long ago now, and he’s drawn very wide.

#16 PEACEFUL STATE

Has a best of 112 and more than happy to give him that, Weir / Allen and the blinkers go back on today. Drawn to get a good run behind good pace and ready to peak at 112.

#17 BEST OF DAYS

Went 110 LST when he turned it up to dead heat. Went 113 the start before and I think that 3 points or 1.5L difference was the difference between what he looked likely to do and what he actually did. However, I think with blinkers on today he may sharpen up, live chance if he gets a run.

#18 ICONOCLASM

Winning a lot of races, went 110 2LST then only 106 LST, I think he has a top better than the 110 but I have him mapping wide here and though unbeaten at Flemington will need an excellent ride.

#19 RADIPOLE

Unlikely to get a run and looks outclassed on his current average form this prep.

#20 KAONIC

Fourth emergency and looks outclassed even if he somehow gets a run.

Good luck!

Cam loves the Spring racing season and the last 12 months have been no exception, finding Rekindling (2017 Melbourne Cup) and Best Solution (2018 Caulfield Cup) at double-figure prices.

There is still time to cash in on that yourself, with a massive Melbourne Cup week ahead.

Don’t get left behind – make this Flemington Carnival a winning one.