Cameron O’Brien’s Kennedy Oaks Preview

Our Key Bets pro-punter previews the Group 1 feature on Oaks Day

Group 1 Kennedy Oaks Spring racing

Spring racing continues with the Group 1 Kennedy Oaks at Flemington today. 

Pro-punter Cameron O’Brien previews the card.

The Oaks is the highlight of Oaks day, naturally, and it can be a funny little race. Sometimes you get one who is just levels above (MOSHEEN, JAMEKA), then at other times it can throw up a surprise result (LASQUETI SPIRIT).

The last few years have been:

Quite the variance in ratings there!

Here is my speed map:

I think the pace will be moderate probably (though the Derby showed us that anything can happen…). However, given how the track is looking like playing on Oaks day (away from rail) they should all get their chance anyway.

My prices are:

As you can see by the prices, I think there’s only a few legitimate chances in the race. I think AMPHITRITE is the most reliable, she already has the figures and she’s clear enough on top for me to be a bet. VERRY ELLEEGANT has a tonne of ability and if she produces her best can definitely knock AMPHITRITE off, but VERRY ELLEEGANT has some poor racing manners and I’d rather be on the more reliable AMPHITRITE as a result. Value in COLLECTABLE as a roughie too.

Runner By Runner Preview

#1 AMPHITRITE
Complete forgive on Saturday when never got a clear run in the Empire Rose. Vacated the rails that day which gave the rails run to the winner Shillelagh! Went 109 the start before and looks as though she’ll stay the trip just fine.
#2 ARISTIA
Went 106 LST winning the Wakeful after getting every possible hope with the perfect run. Can map well again, but I don’t see further improvement and I am a slight ? the trip.
#3 QAFILA
Missed run at an important stage in the Wakeful, might have cost her the race, finished it off well though and I think she’ll stay, maps in the right spot.
#4 VERRY ELLEEGANT
Bit of a nutcase of a horse, over raced in the moderate pace of the Wakeful and though she made some ground was pretty disappointing in 5th. She’ll stay the 2500m which is a plus, went 107 the start before over 2000m running on well, mind you the pace was on for her that day. Think she could do 109 over the 2500m if she has her mind on the job but she’s not guaranteed to do that! Weir has put a nose roll on her for this race, no doubt to try to calm her down.

#5 GREYSFUL GLAMOUR
Had to ride a hot pace LST in the Ethereal and weakened out as a result, did 106 the start before but I can’t give her more than that and I think she’s a ? the trip.

#6 SIZZLEME
Led and had every chance in the Wakeful to keep going but couldn’t find more, can cross to lead but I am a doubt her at the trip off that.

#7 DARK CONFIDANT
Best so far is 94 and that’s miles short.

#8 MISS MOANA
Found line OK rating 92 in Newcastle MDN LST but the final sections were slow and I think she needs too much.

#9 MARACAIBO
Found the line well enough at Benalla and I think she’ll stay but that was a 95 and she didn’t have a turn of foot. I think others will be quicker.

#10 SCAMPER
Found the line well in her MDN at Yarra Glen LST and looks like she’ll stay but that was a 90 and she looks to need too much improvement. Did go wide there more like a 92 but still, a lot more needed.

#11 ZAPURLER
Weir and Bowman makes me respect this filly but she needs too much on figures. Won her MDN well LST going 91 but she beat nothing, probably needs to go 8L or more better than that to win this, and I can’t project her that far!

#12 COLLECTABLE
Came home pretty well LST behind VERRY ELLEEGANT in the Ethereal. Lacked the brilliance of that filly but ground it out OK and I think she can keep improving. Will run on out wide in what’ll likely be the best spot to finish.

#13 EXCLUSIVELY OURS
Best of 97 and I can’t give her much more than that, short of job.

#14 MINERS MISS
Loved her MDN win at Avoca LST, and think she’ll make a nice horse but she just needs too much here.

#15 LESEDI
Best so far of 87… would need at least 10L more than that to be competitive. LST was an 80. Would surprise!! The ambulance may beat her home.

Good luck!

Cam loves the Spring racing season and the last 12 months have been no exception, finding Rekindling (2017 Melbourne Cup) and Best Solution (2018 Caulfield Cup) at double-figure prices.

There is still time to cash in on that yourself, with two massive meetings still to come in this year’s Melbourne Cup week.

Don’t get left behind – make this Flemington Carnival a winning one.