Cameron O’Brien’s Mackinnon Stakes Preview

A pro-punter's in-depth preview of the final Group 1 feature of Cup week

Group 1 Mackinnon Stakes Flemington Spring racing Melbourne Cup

Spring racing season continues with the Group 1 Mackinnon Stakes to round out Melbourne Cup week at Flemington. Pro-punter Cameron O’Brien previews the big race.

The 2000m Mackinnon Stakes used to be my favourite race on Derby Day, it used to be a lead up to the Melbourne Cup and attracted a high class field. Now it’s on the final day, I am not sure how it will remain completely relevant but certainly the $2m prize money will help!

The last few year’s winners:

Hmm… I might need to revisit the Alcopop figure, that looks a bit low! Other than that, pretty solid figures.

The speed map:

And I don’t there’ll be much pace. TRAP FOR FOOLS can get his own way and no way John Allen will go too quick in front, meaning those at the back may struggle to run on.

My prices:

As you can see I have a couple clear of the rest. The market has BLAIR HOUSE as the one to beat, and he’s clearly going to be very hard to beat but at the current prices I want to be on LATROBE first up. He’s $5.00+ at the time of writing, that will do me just fine!

Here is my runner-by-runner run down:

#1 ITS SOMEWHAT
8YO who got to a best of 112 this prep and I don’t think he has more than that any more. Went OK in this race last year going 113, but is a year older now and has only been 108-105 last two.

#2 PRIZED ICON
Best of 113, has only gotten to 111 this prep but was OK chasing LST over the mile going 110. Should map close up in what I think looks a moderate pace, and loves Flemington.

#3 BLAIR HOUSE
Tried very hard LST rating 117 chasing BENBATL in the Ladbrokes stakes. I think he can hold, he won’t be far away from the good draw in the run.

#4 TRAP FOR FOOLS
Super genuine galloper who has been very consistent at his 110/111 level this prep, and he maps to get every possible here again.

#5 DOUBT DEFYING
New peak 112 first up 1400m Randwick on the heavy, then won against the pattern at Sale going 105, he’ll likely press forward to handy now up to 2000m and that puts him right in the right spot in a moderate pace.

#6 OCTABELLO
Went 107 LST finishing OK and the 2000m does suit, may have more in him but needs a bit more than that to be competitive here in all likelihood.

#7 LATROBE
Having first start in Aus here and profiles similarly to MC winners CROSS COUNTER and REKINDLING. My issue is the 2000m may be a touch short for him but he’ll be close to the pace from the good draw, 116 horse over there and unlikely to have seen his top yet.

#8 SHILLELAGH
Got an amazing ride to win the Empire Rose, surprisingly she hasn’t been out to 2000m but gives every indication she’ll handle it, however there is unlikely to be much pace on here.

#9 EXTRA BRUT
Derby winner backing up with no weight! Went 111 in the Derby, the pace on really helped him there, this might be a bit slower run though and he’ll likely be well back dropping back in trip.

#10 MICKEY BLUE EYES
Another one backing up from the Derby, MICKEY didn’t perform so well though. Maybe better suited back in trip, he’ll also be back though.

Cam loves the Spring racing season and the last 12 months have been no exception, finding Rekindling (2017 Melbourne Cup) and Best Solution (2018 Caulfield Cup) at double-figure prices.

There is still time to cash in on that yourself, with Stakes Day to come in this year’s Melbourne Cup week.

Don’t get left behind – make this Spring racing carnival a winning one.