The preview this week is on the G3 1400m Scahill Stakes, at Ascot in Perth. Only nine runners in the race, but I think the pace will be OK. At worst it’ll be moderate but given there’s pace wide it should be close to even. Here’s the map:
As I said above, with the pace from wide out I think the tempo will be OK, VALOUR ROAD will likely hand up. Being at the back might be a slight disadvantage.
And, unfortunately, I am quite like the market. My top three picks are also the markets top three picks, though VALOUR ROAD and ARCADIA PRINCE are both under my price. GREAT SHOT is a little more than my price but at this stage I am not recommending any bets on the race. If things change between now and then I may recommend something for my subscribers on the day, but right now I am waiting.
Runner By Runner
#1 GREAT SHOT
Came back to this prep well, got to his peak 113 figure same track and trip 2nd up, went OK again in the Lee Steere going 111, then failed o ver longer trips. Has drawn 9 of 9, but I think he’ll cross outside WRINKLY, unless VALOUR ROAD kicks up. Can bounce back but I can’t give top off the two lesser runs.
Not sure DISPOSITION is going any good. Best three preps ago in WA of 110, then last prep 109, this prep best 107 so far and poor LST in the Railway. Is a 7yo now, hard to mark beyond the 107, maps well though.
#3 PROFIT STREET
Going better than his form suggests. Very good run first up 107 when bias against, and had excuses last couple since too. Problem is, he gets back so excuses can be part of his MO, however the smaller field here than LST should give him more hope.
#4 STATE SOLICITOR
STATE SOLICITOR is another runner who I am not sure about in current form. Has just been OK this prep going 101-102-104 but has a recent best of 110 (last prep, 112 earlier but that was two years ago). Has had 28 days off since LST though and won a trial since his last run, I can’t give him his top though. Also, although he won the trial over the trip he has only ever won up to 1300m, however only raced at 1400m once.
#5 RED PUBLISHER
7yo who went to his best LST going 104, but that’s a way off winning this.
WRINKLY is a 107 horse at top, this trip should be fine and after the cleanout run third up last start going too quick he should be fit. Still, 107 probably won’t be enough, should give a sight though.
PINZU gets back but has come back well. Won well first up 101 against a moderate pace, has a best of 107, happy to mark up closer to that but may need more than 107 to be able to win.
#8 ARCADIA PRINCE
Progressive galloper who won brilliantly going 110 LST and I don’t think that is his top. However, he will go back which can be an issue, but he might just be better than them. Looks like a 112 horse to me on how he’s been winning.
#9 VALOUR ROAD
Only 3yo in the race, VALOUR ROAD went 105 LST, peaked at 106 in just his second start last prep, I think he can get to 109 and he maps perfectly, however given he hasn’t done it I can’t mark him up that high, but will get his chance.
Cameron O’Brien is an experienced pro-punter who knows how to find winners at big prices.
Boom Time ($51) and Rekindling ($21) in last year’s Caulfield and Melbourne Cups, Best Solution ($13) in this year’s Caulfield Cup and Voodoo Lad ($14) in the Winterbottom Stakes, just to name a few.
Follow Cam in this summer: