The preview this week is on the Group 2 $402,000 Ted Van Heemst Stakes, run over 2100m at Ascot.
The recent race history is:
And my speed map on the race is:
There won’t be much pace, but I don’t think the map will play a big part over the 2100m, they should all pretty much get their chance. GALAXY STAR wouldn’t want to get pinned where I have mapped her though, Pike will probably be a big more proactive than that.
And – as the market also suggests – there are only four genuine hopes in the race, in GALAXY STAR, MATERIAL MAN, GATTING and PERFECT JEWEL. For any of the others to win, ALL of those four runners would have to fail to fire. That’s not very likely.
I have GALAXY STAR well clear, priced at $2.40, but the market is only $1.65 or so at the moment, so I will obviously not be on at that price. I almost never take that kind of price about horses anyway, so was never going to be on her. I cannot see why she’d drift to the $2.50 I would want to back her, and if she did I would be worried why she had that drift!
I do want to be on GATTING, for the reasons outlined below, he is super genuine and will run a big race, if she has any chinks then he can certainly win. I will likely also have something small on PERFECT JEWEL (again) at a good price.
Runner By Runner
#1 MATERIAL MAN
7yo racing well, has held 113 figures his last two, both times you could argue things were against him. Had to bring them up to a hot pace in the Railway then pushed wide into the wrong part of the track in the Kingston Town. He has a best of 114 and with a better map here I think he has to be given that. The one to beat if GALAXY STAR has an off day.
Went super first up in the Lee Steere going 114 over an unsuitable 1400m, then pulled up lame in the Railway but still went 111 (we were on him). Big run going 110 in the Kingston Town and set to peak fourth up. Can’t give him more than his 114 but can certainly see him doing that.
#3 STAR EXHIBIT
Has a best dry track figure of 109, has a 114 on wet for Weir when he might have had something special from the “master trainer” that day… Realistic best is 109 which makes this 7yo short of the ask.
#4 DARK MUSKET
He’s a 7yo whose best is 106 and that is well short. Can’t win unless a remarkable series of failures from the more fancied runners.
#5 PRIZE CATCH
Went 110 courtesy of a lovely ride from Smith in the Ascot Gold Cup at his third last start. Just OK in two runs since, but he has such a good map here that I’ve given him close to that 110
#6 PRYING TOM
110 figure LST courtesy of a rails hugging ride, that’s a new peak and I have questions about him holding that, would need every bit of that 110 to win and would need others to fail
#7 GALAXY STAR
Race fave and deservedly. Big win in the Railway going 114 from well back, then a bit stiff in the Kingston Town going 111. I think she can do as high as 116 at some point and this is a very suitable race to do it in. Looking for the trip now, if she does 116 she bolts in with the weight relief from the males, slight ? on her doing it as it would be a new peak and she’ll be back again, but she’s clear top pick. Can’t be on at current price though.
#8 ELEGANT BLAST
Best of 107 and that’s short of the job here.
#9 PERFECT JEWEL
Really nice run in the Railway going 108 and I think she can be a 112 mare, and was on her LST in the Kingston Town as a result, she didn’t go as well there as I would have liked, 104, but I’ll give her another chance here. Still a lightly raced and promising mare on the up, fifth up now too.
Cameron O’Brien is an experienced pro-punter who knows how to find winners at big prices.
Boom Time ($51) and Rekindling ($21) in last year’s Caulfield and Melbourne Cups, Best Solution ($13) in this year’s Caulfield Cup and Voodoo Lad ($14) in the Winterbottom Stakes, just to name a few.
With over $4,500 profit since September 9th, now is the time to follow Cam in: