Nathan Snow’s Carrington Stakes Preview

NSW pro Nathan Snow gives us the lowdown on tomorrow's main event at Randwick.

video analysis

Randwick Race 7 4:20pm
Listed Tattersalls Club Carrington Stakes (1400m)

The speed story

Tricky race here, with a few queries. Oxford Poet and Princefamous have the most speed. Ecuador has enough to hold the fence if desired, but Oxford Poet will likely cross with Princefamous a distance query at 1400m for the first time. Ecuador and Ninth Legion will look to trail up next from Golf Symphony and Shiraz, with Wouldn’t It Be Nice out the back. If Princefamous crosses early it will be able dictate pace to suit itself, and if Oxford Poet kicks up, the pace will be more genuine.

In the mix

Ecuador is the most talented runner in the race, and resumed with a very good win when strong on the line late. Couple of queries here though: 28 days without a trial concerns me, along with the fact I would’ve preferred it to be up in distance second up. Also, there’s some chance that it is crossed by Princefamous early, who in turn gives it up to Oxford Poet – and three back the fence would not be an ideal spot to end up.

Ninth Legion was racing only fairly in NSW, before slightly improving last start in weaker Brisbane grade. Needs to improve here, but gets the perfect run in the first three somewhere.

Shiraz has very good old form, but has been disappointing in all three runs this prep and would need to improve here.

Oxford Poet trialled particularly well before resuming over 1000m this prep when up on the speed, and did a solid job running third behind the promising Dal Cielo. Better suited up at 1400m here, and looks to get a good run either in front of sitting off the leader.

Wouldn’t It Be Nice has resumed in good form this prep, running on well with good closing splits, but lacks any tactical speed and has tried and failed over 1400m previously.  It’s in better form now however, and with a small field it gets its chance to use its turn of foot.  Chances further enhanced with the prospect of rain.

Princefamous is also racing well this prep, but there’s a distance query here. Stuck on well over 1100m in first two runs this prep (in strong races), before being caught wide and working on a hot pace last start. It went well winning over 1300m early in its career, and gets the right map to see if it can run the 1400m here.

Gold Symphony has resumed as a gelding this prep and is racing well in weaker grade. Trialled well before hitting the line okay over the unsuitable 1200m, before a dominant win second up. This is up in grade, but will be strong late if any pace eventuates.

Snowy’s Summary

Very tough to single out a betting angle at current odds with so many queries about the race. Oxford Poet looks to get the right run no matter what, and is probably the safest play. Wouldn’t It Be Nice and Princefamous look slight value despite the distance doubts, but then again Ecuador could well just be too good.

Doubtful that I will get too involved, but hopefully something here helps you get a result on the race if you play!

Our NSW Ratings service gives you access to all of Snowy’s assessed prices, speed map comments and recommended bets, as well as a direct line to the man himself during meetings via our live page.