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Caulfield Cup 2021: Pro punter preview

Pro punterĀ Trevor Lawson gives us his thoughts on the 2021 Caulfield Cup

The Caulfield Cup is always a cracking race, and it’s a lot easier to do this year given the lack of unknowns! There are often six or more overseas horses competing that you know nothing about, but that’s not the case this year.

Caulfield Cup: The Speed

Homesman will probably take up the speed along with Incentivise, Delphi and Nonconformist, and possibly Persan.

All the talk has been about the wide draw for Incentivise, but personally I don’t think it’s a big problem. Prebble’s intention will be to go straight to the front. If he doesn’t get there immediately, once they get around the first corner, they’ve got a 700-metre straight run where he’ll be able to get forward. The horse has gate speed anyway, and there’s a lot here that don’t. The barrier should just get you a better price!

Caulfield Cup: Runner-by-runner

HOMESMAN just has too much weight to seriously compete here.

INCENTIVISE has won his past eight on a natural progression in ratings. He was terrific last start when given no peace in front, but pulled away. He looks to be on the up and can run another peak here.

EXPLOSIVE JACK ran okay second-up behind Incentivise, but was still well beaten. He gets natural improvement here and is getting out in trip. But others are better weighted here and have similar ability, so I only give him really rough claims.

THE CHOSEN ONE placed in this race last year. He resumed with a nice run, then hit the line hard last start. He comes here on the seven-day backup, similar to last year. I think he can repeat last year’s figure.

SELINO put in an improved effort last start. He won the Sydney Cup in the autumn but would need to improve off his previous best figures to be any chance here.

CHAPADA ran home nicely in the Turnbull in a peak performance at massive odds. I doubt he can repeat that here. Only rough claims for mine.

DELPHI‘s three runs this prep have all been good. He was solid to the line last week in the Herbert Power. The quick back-up is a query. He hasn’t seen a wet track in Australia, which is another query.

MASTER OF WINE put in an improved effort last start at big odds in the Bart Cummings, running third. But I’m not sure he has another level in him to figure here.

MONTEFILIA won the Spring Champion as a three-year-old filly, then may not have come up in the autumn. She’s improving progressively this prep, running a peak in The Metropolitian. Not sure she has another step off that however.

YOUNG WERTHER always seemed backward and immature as a three-year-old, when the stable clearly had a high opinion of him. He put in a nice return first-up, then jumped out of the ground last start when second to Incentivise in the Turnbull. He can hold those ratings and is certainly a chance here.

NONCONFORMIST has come back in career-best form. He won the MRC Foundation Cup well, before running on well in the Might And Power last week with a peak figure. He gets Williams on here and can go forward from the barrier. The only concern is a slight query at the distance.

DUAIS is on the three day backup from the Coongy. She drops in weight here but would have to improve significantly to figure here.

OCEAN BILLY, CHARMS STAR, PERSAN, QUICK THINKER, PORT GUILLAUMEĀ and SHEā€™S IDEEL aren’t good enough to figure here for mine.

Caulfield Cup: Final thoughts

I’m with the favourite. There’s been a bit of talk about the barrier but as I said above, I don’t think it’s a big issue for Prebble. He’s probably the best bet on the card for mine. I’ve got him marked around $2.70.

From there I’ve got Young Werther and Nonconformist about $8, so there’s some slight overs there. Then Delphi at about $15, and the rest of the field $20.

Punt like a proĀ with Trevor Lawsonā€™sĀ Melbourne Ratings.

As well as a full set of rated prices, speed maps and suggested bets, you can spend each and every raceday with a pro punter: the MelbourneĀ Ratings Live Page gives you direct access to Trev himself to ask whatever you like.

If you're keen to win, itā€™s the only way to punt.

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