caulfield guineas, trevor lawson
Caulfield Guineas 2021: Pro punter preview

Pro punter Trevor Lawson gives us his thoughts on the 2021 Caulfield Guineas.

To be honest, this race gave me a bit of a headache! The two top hopes are clearly superior, but they’re both drawn awkwardly. The rest aren’t at their level and it’s hard to see who’s clearly ahead if the top two can’t get to where they need to be.

Put simply… if the top two are taken out of the race, it’s really anybody’s.

On the map, Lightsaber, Mr Mozart and Zerelle will roll forward. Artorius maps midfield on the fence. Anamoe will have to get back, and might only have two or three behind it.

ANAMOE ran well first-up over 1200 metres, then got too far out of his ground second-up before running home in the second-best splits of the race behind the leader. He looks suited by the trip, but the wide draw is the concern.

ARTORIUS settled further back than Anamoe last start, but ran home in quicker sectionals. He could settle handier this time, but in a worse spot (midfield on the fence). He’s suited by this trip but will need some luck in the run.

TIGER OF MALAY has had every chance at his past couple of starts. He’s in barrier 1, will sit handy on the fence and he gets the right run. But the top two certainly have the class edge over him.

ALPINE EDGE had no luck last start and can improve off that… but needs to improve a lot to get near the top two

CAPTIVANT raced honestly last start but also needs to improve greatly.

LIGHTSABER is an improving type, but on raw figures he’s well short of the top two. Likewise GIANNIS.

FORGOT YOU comes through two fast-run races, which is what this will be. He could improve again. The negative is the wide draw… he’ll probably get back.

MR MOZART has run well at his past two starts, holding on particularly well in a fast-run race last start. He gets Jye McNeil here and is a chance.

DAILY BUGLE ran a peak last start, but is still a fair way short of the level required here.

RIVERPLATE had not much luck last start when he was held up in the run. Has rough claims here again, but would need to elevate a fair bit.

HITOTSU won a lower class race impressively. He’s an improving type, but not sure if he can make the necessary leap here.

KNIGHTSTOWN, ZERELLE and PRIX DE TURN are not good enough to figure here.

As I said initially, it’s a tricky puzzle. I’ve got Anamoe on top, about even money, and Artorius back at about $5. They’re well ahead of the rest of the field, which I have at around $12. They’ll battle it out if they get clear passage to where they need to be. If they don’t, it’s really anybody’s race. Tread carefully!

Punt like a pro with Trevor Lawson’s Melbourne Ratings.

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