Flemington July 23rd – Hanan Display Handicap preview

We head to headquarters here for this Open Handicap over 1600m. At this stage it looks as if we will be bettng on a dead track which should give most of the field a chance on their merits. Looking at some historical data over the last thousand runners (admittedly not a large sample size) to race over the mile at Flemington: Horses that were favourite last start return 3.7% POT Horses that finished first or second last start return 1.8% POT Horses third to fifth up return 4.8% POT Jockeys that have won on their ride return 2% POT Jockeys that have never won on their ride lose 14.2% Let’s have a look at those rules applied to this race and see what we can come up with. Now I really want to stress these are NOT hard and fast rules to live or even punt by, it’s really just a different angle to form part of your overall assessments for this race. Horses that were favourite last start: #7 Testacana. Horses that finished first or second last start: #5 Carnero, #7 Testacana, #8 Sweet Talking Guy, #9 Riceman. Horses third to fifth up: #1 Jeuneyman, #2 Haddle McDaddle, #3 Overtake, #4 Just Look, #5 Carnero, #6 Tiakinui, #7 Testacana, #8 Sweet Talking Guy, #10 They Won’t Last, #11 Scenic Scene. Jockeys that have won on their ride: #1 Jeuneyman, #2 Haddle McDaddle. Looking at our little survey of where the runners fit in Testacana ticks the most boxes. He is a last start favourite who was able to win and he is still on the up. Another plus is the fact that he is trained by leading trainer Peter Moody. Carnero ticks two boxes in that he was second last start and he will be fifth up on Saturday. He has form behind Mr Make Believe and although not favourite he was 9/1 into 6/1 last start. Sweet Talking Guy fits into the same categories as Carnero and he won his start prior also. That leaves us with two other runners that tick two boxes and they are Jeuneyman and Haddle McDaddle. Those runners are 5th and 4th up respectively and connections have decided to engage a jockey who has been aboard for a win in the past. For the point of this exercise the following horses appear to fit the right kind of profile for a Flemington 1600m race: 1st Testacana 2nd Carnero 3rd Sweet Talking Guy 4th Jeuneyman 5th Haddle McDaddle Happy punting Rick Williams