Getting set for Spring

Rosehill hosts the big Golden Rose meeting tomorrow so let’s take a closer look at results at the track to see if there are any angles to work with.

Focusing on the last four seasons and runners under 10/1 we’ll start with the record of the big trainers at Rosehill.  Pride, Waterhouse and Waller runners return excellent figures at the track, while the Snowden stable has a terrible record:

POT%    Trainer

+12         J Pride

+8           G Waterhouse

+3           C Waller

-1            JB Cummings

-9            J O’shea

-9            G Ryan

-11          D Payne

-22          P Snowden

Next we will look at the jockeys and the standouts are Schofield, Rawiller and Bowman:

POT%    Jockey 

+8           G Schofield

+7           N Rawiller

+4           H Bowman

-5            J Cassidy

-10          B Shinn

-13          P Robl

-13          K Mcevoy

-19          C Brown

Thankfully we are expecting a good track tomorrow, because results at Rosehill become less predictable as the track condition worsens:

POT%    Going   

-3            Good

-7            Dead

-12          Slow

-13          Heavy

Punters often like to see that their horse has performed well at the track in prior starts, but the numbers show that Rosehill experience was very much over-rated. Horses with at least one start there lost 12% on turnover, while runners without experience at the track were a far better betting proposition:

POT%    Rosehill starts  

-4            0

-12          1+

There is little to be gleaned from the profitability by barrier draw as there is no firm pattern:

POT        Barrier

    3              1

-14              2

-23              3

-10              4

    9              5

    9              6

  -8              7

-17              8

-18              9

-15            10

  -6              11+

A quick summary of Rosehill:

  • Pride, Waterhouse, Waller, Schofield, Rawiller and Bowman are all positives
  • Snowden and Brown perform poorly for punters
  • The drier the track, the more confidence you can have in the form
  • Don’t be put off by no previous experience at the track
  • Barriers aren’t a big deal (in general – this varies by race distance)

Hopefully that’s given you a little extra insight into the Rosehill track. Of course if you’re serious about winning then this is one very small part of a far bigger equation, but since many of these figures are not widely known amongst the punting public it is at least a starting point for your analysis.

Good punting

David Duffield