Goodwood Handicap Preview

By Rick Williams

Below is our 2013 early preview of the Goodwood Handicap this weekend in Adelaide. We have provided the field below with the horses official handicap rating and also a column beside that to highlight the horses ability to run time to win a Group 1 at 1200m based on Vince Accardi’s IVR data.

From what we have seen of these runners to date the two that profile the best at 1200m here are Moment of Change and Amaethon.

Moment Of Change went awfully close in the Newmarket HCP when beaten on the line by 3yo Shamexpress. In that race he was asked to carry 6kg above the minimum and gets in here the same, and the field certainly lacks the quality of the Newmarket and is made up of lower quality horses who are certainly not up to genuine Group 1 standard. Prior to his run in the Newmarket he was of course runner up to Black Caviar in the Lightning Stakes at WFA and defeated Shamexpress by 5L. When we factor in his handicap rating with his ability to run time he does stand out here significantly as the market suggests. As you can see from our speed map below we expect he will be up on the pace and one would presume Nolen won’t get drawn into any silly battles for the lead.

Amaethon is loaded with ability and can peak third up from a long spell. His two runs back have been good when carrying 60.5kg and at unsuitable distances of 1000/1100m. First up he had the 11th best L400 of the day and second up the 19th. We expect that he will come right on here and be jumping out of his skin. He can sprint very well with 54.5kg and will settle off of the speed and be closing hard. His last two runs at 1200m have been well above average.

Of the rest of the runners Yosei certainly goes very well but her absolute best is over further, that aside it is possible that she could get home with 52.5kg on her back. General Truce seems to be racing well above himself, he is smashing the line but all his strong data has been at 1000/1100m but he needs respect.

Tip: Moment Of Change, Amaethon, General Truce, Platelet.

NoLast 10HorseTrainerJockeyBarrierWeightHcp RatingPrice[email protected] 1200
101x131x220MOMENT OF CHANGEPeter G MoodyLuke Nolen658.5kg108$2.10Yes
1706783040×3YOSEIStuart WebbMs Michelle Payne952.5kg107$8.00No
71x30x07x2xFACILE TIGREJason McLachlanBrad Rawiller854.5kg104$9.00No
2111325×321PLATELETDarren WeirBen Melham556.5kg109$13.00No
8x1453x1x27AMAETHONMEllerton & S ZahraDamian Lane1454.5kg103$15.00Yes
18429x42x485ALTARPeter SnowdenVlad Duric1552.5kg94$17.00No
326310×6311GENERAL TRUCERicky MaundNicholas Hall356kg108$21.00No
15x2142x1212KARACATISRichard JollyPaul Gatt754.5kg90$35.00No
416×6103556OUTLANDISH LADDennis O’LearyJason Holder1156kg103$41.00No
1068×0701453ZEDI KNIGHTBrendan McCarthyChris Symons154.5kg98$41.00No
1205x72532x5CONSERVATORIUMGary KennewellJoe Bowditch1854.5kg97$41.00No
5903x46230xGALAHPeter SnowdenKerrin McEvoy1756kg92$41.00No
1142123232×0ZAMORARDavid Bourne1054.5kg97$51.00No
960x30x00x0SHELLSCRAPENikki BurkeDwayne Dunn254.5kg101$67.00No
1343x080x440PERTURBOColin & Cindy Alderson1254.5kg97$67.00No
611x2390x16RIZIZKen SweeneySimon Price455.5kg93$67.00No
145314×25276JUSTIFY THATPeter Moody1654.5kg96$201.00No
1637215×4447MEADOWS JIMJim Smith1354.5kg90$201.00No