Our Melbourne professional punter, Trevor Lawson, give us his in-depth-look at what looks like a cracking edition of the Group 1 Australian Guineas.
Flemington Race 8
Group 1 Australian Guineas (1600m)
Prize Money: $1,000,000
#1 Extra Brut (Maher & Eustace / Michael Walker)
Ran okay first-up when held-up late is straight, so margin was unfair. Have rated just off best second-up.
#2 Long Leaf (Lindsay Park / Jamie Kah)
Have rated to best. Long odds.
#3 Stars Of Carrum (Robbie Laing / Ben Melham)
Not much luck last start. Will be better once it gets further.
#4 Ringerdingding (Chris Waller / John Allen)
Ran quick sectionals last week, but still third-last. Will be running on here but will be giving horses of similar ability a long start.
#5 Ranier (James Cummings / Craig Newitt)
Won the Carbine Club in spring at this track and distacne. Two runs back have been only okay. One of the outsiders.
#6 Chapada (Michael Moroney / Damien Oliver)
Second-up here. Made good ground first-up but will have to go back again here from the barrier, which could be too big an ask.
#7 The Inevitable (Scott Brunton / Sigrid Carr)
Ran well last week in the CS Hayes. Different class here though.
#8 Hawkshot (Lindsay Park / Mark Zahra)
Improved rating immensely when finding the front last start. Always had ability. Drawn wide but maps to cross, very hard to beat if holds rating.
#9 Performer (Chris Waller / Stephen Baster)
Poor last start, lacks class.
#10 Scottish Rogue (Tony McEvoy / Luke Currie)
#11 Dealmaker (Chris Waller / Michael Dee)
Made some ground behind Hawkshot at Caulfield. Can improve off that run here but has a lot of ground to make up on Hawkshot.
#12 O’Tauto (Greg Eurell / Dwayne Dunn)
#13 Adana (Chris Waller / Luke Nolen)
#14 Amphitrite (Lindsay Park / Craig Williams)
Terrific mare with winning ways. Soft win first-up but can improve here second-up. Best two figures in previous prep were this distance, should be ready to peak.
#15 Mystic Journey (Adam Trinder / Anthony Darmanin)
Terrific win in Spring over this trip. Huge wins in Tassie this prep, beating older horses both times. Looks ready to run to best here.
#17 Declarationofheart (Anthony Freedman / Damian Lane)
Does a bit wrong. Gets blinkers on first-time but would need big improvement to be competitive.
I’ve got Mystic Journey on top from Amphtrite and Hawkshot. I think Mystic Journey and Hawkshot represent value, so it looks like a good betting race at this stage.
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