Key Bets pro-punter Cameron O’Brien returns with another Spring racing preview – this time the Group 1 Caulfield Stakes.
The G1 Caulfield Stakes is the race I want to preview this week, as the Spring Carnival really kicks into gear on Caulfield Guineas day. As you can see from the last five winners, it is consistently a high rating race:
There is no Winx in the field this year, if she were in the field her 121 would certainly win (and that’s not even her top…).
However, we have a good field again this year and I think the winner will rate well. There a few overseas runners in it, complicating proceedings, and I think one of them at least is a very solid chance.
First up, the speed map:
I don’t see a great deal of pressure in the race. Far more back markers than on speed runners, and HOMESMAN can get a pretty easy lead. BENBATL can race forward and I have plonked him there from the good gate, with SEDANZER and TOSEN BASIL being close up.
D’ARGENTO has drawn wide and I have mapped him back, however there is a chance they could push on, especially if they think there’s no pace also.
Now to my prices in the race:
And I have both my top two picks being backable on current prices, in UNFORGOTTEN and BENBATL. At this stage I will look to be on both.
Current race fave D’ARGENTO I have longer than the market. He has been in great form but I have queries about how this race will pan out for him.
Here is my runner by runner description for the race:
OS runner first go in Aus for the Sheikh. Has a best of 120 at 1980m at just his 2LST then 115 LST. Did 120 last prep, too, serious horse clearly! Can be versatile with settling, from the good draw am expecting he’ll get the right run, class runner of the race and if he’s right he’ll take a lot of beating!
Racing OK, 113 LST when not really run to suit him from back, closed it out well. He’s set to peak sometime soon, went 122 in last years Cox Plate but hasn’t gone near it since. I think this will probably be not really run to suit either but on his day he’s obviously more than good enough. Given 117.5 with the query on the pace again here.
#3 TOSEN BASIL
Big run LST nearly stealing it at 100/1, rated 114. Has an OS best of 117 and I can see him improving again third up, is a 7yo but very lightly raced.
Not sure how he’s going as a now 7yo, has a best of 117 in the Aus Cup but that was on the best ground.
#5 THE CLIFFSOFMOHER
OS runner who has been very solid this trip around the 114-116 mark. Had a 118 earlier in his career. Maps fair, probably back a bit but drawn middle does suit. Very consistent so have given the 116.
Game win on pace LST rating 114 2nd up and I expect him to improve with fitness, not sure he has a big new level in him though, have given 115.5 on a potential 116/7 peak.
#7 BLAIR HOUSE
Not run to suit first up behind Homesman and made up good ground, has an OS best of 116, did 109 first up, definite improver and have pushed to 115.5.
#8 NIGHTS WATCH
Not there on figures, for mine. Solid for Weir this prep going 109-110-112-111 but he needs to go 117 to be in this and though he’s ultra consistent I am not convinced he can, have given 113.
#9 INVICTUS PRINCE
Did a 115 with the advantage of the bias in August at Randwick, has gone 106-107 last couple and I think he’s out of his depth here.
Currently race fave but not my fave. Nice horse, has gone 113-112-116 this prep and is very genuine, however he has drawn the outside and I think they have to go back, I don’t think they’ll want to ride him upside down and push on. He may not get the best time of it on the map, I have pushed him forward a little to 116.5 but I can’t be with him at the price he is at the time of writing.
Likely race on pace and consistent horse with a best of 112 but he’s short of this.
Strong winning chance. 114 LST closing it out very well behind Hartnell and will appreciate the 2000m. Already has a 117 in the Autumn and on the up this prep, can see him pushing on towards that here and is the one to beat for mine.
Over $4,000 profit since September 9 to start off Spring racing in style.