The track is currently rated a Good 4, but there’s the possibility of a tremendous amount of rain before the meeting. Due to this I’ve assumed a heavy track, or a Soft 7 at the very best. It’s something we’ll have to keep an eye on.
It’s a very big field and there’s a lot of variables on the map. Mandylyon will go forward along with White Moss, who was ridden aggressively last start, Manicure, who gets the blinkers on, and Dayzee Doom, who won this race last year when ridden forward from barrier 14.
Alassio and Jamaican Rain will be on the speed, and behind them it gets a bit less clear depending on whether jockeys want to drive forward or snag back.
One thing to note is that last time we had a wet track with a true rail at Rosehill, it was surprisingly favourable to be on the fence. Something else to keep an eye on for Saturday, as generally it’s favourable to be off the fence on a wet track.
Runner By Runner
#1 Daysee Doom (Ron Quinton / Andrew Adkins)
Barrier 21, 58kg
Won this last year second-up. Wet track won’t bother her. Major concerns are the number of horses who might want to go forward, and the fact she’s a year older. Needs to improve on recent runs with 58kgs on a wet track. I’ll oppose her.
#2 Dixie Blossoms (Ron Quinton / Christian Reith)
Barrier 2, 56.5kg
Wasn’t enough speed on for her first-up, but she ran really well and is surely set to peak here. Wet track is no issue and she can win this. Slight knock is McDonald had the option of riding and elected not to.
#3 Savvy Coup (Chris Waller / Opie Bosson)
Barrier 4, 56.5kg
Had her first start for Waller, was 50-1, never got on the track and was well beaten. Can’t see her causing an upset.
#4 Eckstein (Kurt Goldman / Sam Clipperton)
Barrier 11, 56kg
Good first-up win against the boys, then was only fair behind Alassio when not suited by a lack of speed. She’s won at stakes level on the heavy so no concern there, but I think 56kgs at Group 1 level might max her out. I’ll be looking elsewhere.
#5 Oregon’s Day (Mick Price / Michael Walker)
Barrier 3, 56kg
Perfect run under Oliver in a first-up win at Flemington. A repeat of that would probably see here around the mark in this company. Wet track is the query. Looks a bit under the odds for me.
#6 Alassio (Waterhouse & Bott / Tim Clark)
Barrier 6, 55.5kg
In tremendous form this prep, winning three of her last four. Was brilliantly ridden by Clark last start, who controlled the speed up front at 1400m. Steps to 1500m here on s wet track with a bit of competition for the lead. That combined with being up in class and weight makes it difficult for her.
#8 Noire (Chris Waller / Damian Lane)
Barrier 14, 55.5kg
Will like the wet track. Tends to get back. Totally unsuited behind Alassio last time and can improve on that. The wet track is a plus, but she will find this difficult.
#9 White Moss (Jason Coyle / Kathy O’Hara)
Barrier 5, 55.5kg
A terrific ride from O’Hara last time got the money at 50-1. Imagine they’ll go the same way here and try to push forward. Wet track is a plus, but there’s a fair bit of depth here and she won’t be able to dictate terms like last time.
#10 Aloisia (Maher & Eustace / Jay Ford)
Barrier 24, 55kg
Completely unsuited behind Winx, but last prep she ran a second in the Villiers which would appear to give her a chance here. Barrier 23 is a worry, they have no option but to go back and hope she can make up the ground, which will be difficult.
#11 I Am Serious (Chris Waller / James McDonald)
Barrier 15, 55kg
Early favourite and one of the best chances. McDonald has clearly had his choice of a few and stuck with this mare. Set to peak here and the wet is a plus. Seems pretty well-found however and I can’t get her down to her market price.
#12 Invincible Gem (Kris Lees / Jason Collett)
Barrier 18, 55kg
Competitive on figures but drawn a bit wide and hasn’t won for a long time. Might just fall short here again.
#13 Princess Posh (Kris Lees / Kerrin McEvoy)
Barrier 23, 55kg
Won the Newcastle Newmarket and won’t mind the wet track. She’s third-up here and should hold her peak. The barrier’s a problem – although she tends to go back anyway, she will have to run past a lot of horses in the straight here.
#14 Savatiano (James Cummings / Corey Brown)
Barrier 19, 54kg
Looked to have the Newcastle Newmarket won until Princess Posh got her on the line. Third-up here, set to peak, and a bit better at the weights. Will need a bit of luck from the gate but looks a chance and at around $16 looks over the odds.
#15 El Dorado Dreaming (Kris Lees / Brenton Avdulla)
Barrier 20, 53.5kg
Going well and has form around Nakeeta Jane. Drawn wide and will have do something clever. Unproven on wet ground. Perhaps an each-way chance.
#16 Fiesta (Chris Waller / Glyn Schofield)
Barrier 12, 52.5kg
Interesting one. Was terrific winning the Inglis first-up, where she found the best part of the track and flew. Drew badly in the Surround but didn’t run too badly. The soft track will suit and she’s drawn okay, as well as being nicely weighted. Has a chance and isa decent price at around $13.
#17 Jamaican Rain (Richard Laming / Glen Boss)
Barrier 16, 52.5kg
Very nicely set up for this, Six years old but only lightly raced. Wet track credentials are good, admittedly in weaker grades. Drops to 52kg here and a lot looks to go her way. Boss flying in to ride. The one to beat for mine.
#18 Bella Martini (Team Hawkes / Jye McNeil)
Barrier 9, 52kg
Third-up now and should be peaking. Nicely weighted but has only been fair this prep. Rough place chance.
#19 Manicure (James Cummings / Robbie Dolan)
Barrier 22, 52kg
Blinkers on and primed to run a race here. Won on soft going when younger. They’ll ride her forward, it just remains to be seen if she’ll run the trip.
#20 Moss Trip (Peter & Paul Snowden / Tommy Berry)
Barrier 7, 51.5kg
I’ve always had a bit of time for her. Has no weight here. Was okay first-up behind White Moss. Could be a chance here but doesn’t look a great betting proposition at around $11.
#21 Mandylion (Gwenda Markwell / TBC)
Barrier 1, 51kg
She’s a wet tracker. Will be up on the speed with no weight. I wouldn’t tip her, but she’s not the worst 80-1 chance.
#22 Mizzy (Anthony Cummings / Corey Brown)
Barrier 10, 50kg
Good filly going well, and a lightweight chance. If she gets into the race she’ll get her chance, and she handles the wet.
#23 Qafila (Hayes & Dabernig / Jye McNeil)
Barrier 17, 50kg
She probably wants further now, but she got the job done from a long way back at Caulfield, running better sectionals than Jamaican Rain. Hard to see her winning but throw her into exotics.
#24 Pohutukawa (James Cummings / TBC)
Barrier 8, 50kg
Looks ready to do something. Drawn well and likes the wet. Could be a chance if she gets a run (entered at Kembla on Friday).
Lot of variables to weigh up here. We’ve assumed a fair-ish track with a bit of bias toward the outside.
Jamaican Rain looks a good bet at around $8 and could be set for a peak performance.
I Am Serious is a very good chance, but very well-found.
Best value chances look to be Fiesta and Savatiano, but they’ll both need a bit to go right.
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