Group 1 Doomben 10,000 preview

Queensland racing expert The Professor brings you his Group 1 Doomben 10,000 preview as top-line racing heads north to the Sunshine State.

 

Group 1 Doomben 10,000 WFA (1200m)

 

Track

 

Expecting a good track, with clear sunny conditions in Brisbane expected on Friday and Saturday and little rain in the past week. With the rail in the true position Doomben plays as fair as it ever does – you can still expect an on-pace bias but it will be unlikely to be a “lead at all costs” track. I don’t expect either on or off the fence to be particularly advantaged.

 

Speed

 

The presence of Nature Strip from a wide draw will ensure a fast tempo here – wants to lead and generally doesn’t drop the anchor. I’m A Rippa is drawn in closer and will look to punch up and make things difficult for Nature Strip. Manuel and Dollar For Dollar will also try to settle up on pace.

The Field

 

#1 Osborne Bulls (James Cummings / K McEvoy)
Barrier 4, 58.5kg
Serious contender. One of the few here that has run ratings to match the favourite, comes in with a fitness edge well into his prep, dropping back from the 1400m and gets the blinkers on for the first time. Question mark here is how well he will be suited at Doomben as does get back and run on. Also have to have a query over a horse that has run second in 4 straight races. Drawn inside so if can be close enough to the leaders will be hard to hold out.

#2 Nature Strip (Chris Waller / J McDonald)
Barrier 11, 58.5kg
Drawn wide but looks likely to be speedy enough to cross and lead. Suited by the likely on-pace bias. The 1200m has always been the question mark with this horse – has won over the testing 1200m straight at Flemington and this is a softer 1200m at Doomben, but will have to do it first-up with no trial.

#3 I’m A Rippa (T Gollan / B Stewart)
Barrier 5, 58.5kg
Well beaten in the Victory Stakes over 1200m at Eagle Farm but not particularly suited by the track or the pace – led in a very fast run race. Likely improves with fitness and back to his preferred Doomben but looks outclassed here.

#4 Manuel (T McEvoy / M Du Plessis)
Barrier 8, 58.5kg
Thought he ran a big race last start in the All Aged – led in a fast run race and stuck on well only beaten 1.2L, and less than a length to Osborne Bulls who had a much easier time in transit. Prior to that was only just beaten in a Group 3 race at Rosehill with a big margin back to the rest of the field. Can be within striking distance at the turn. One of the roughies that interests me.

#5 Easy Eddie (J Pride / C Brown)
Barrier 9, 58.5kg
Beaten less than a length by Nature Strip at their last meeting over 1100m at Rosehill when was wide for a good portion of the race. That was on a Heavy track though. At his last start was also three-deep the trip on a moderate tempo at Randwick. Can win if the favourite is not at his best but needs to be at his absolute best.

#6 Dollar For Dollar (T McEvoy / J Kah)
Barrier 12, 58.5kg
Competitive in the G1 Rupert Clarke last spring but looks outmatched here. Drawn awkwardly and at his best over further. Not for me.

#7 Tactical Advantage (K Lees / L Cassidy)
Barrier 7, 58.5kg
Out of his grade here for mine. Though he had things against him last start at Hawkesbury, figures out of that race were modest and he needed to be winning to be a serious contender here. On rare occasions can produce a figure that would be a chance of winning here, but generally has been short of this standard.

#8 The Bostonian (A Pike / M Cahill)
Barrier 3, 58.5kg
Had a good carnival last year, winning 3/3 in Queensland. Those were all 3YO races though and was suited by a couple of Heavy tracks. This looks exponentially harder. Don’t think a serious player.

#9 Havasay (L BIrchley / M McGillivray)
Barrier 6, 58.5kg
Completely out of depth here. True price might genuinely be millions.

#10 Man Booker (D Morton / J Bayliss)
Barrier 13, 58.5kg
Not strong on my WA form but did put together a nice prep out west over the spring, producing some strong ratings. This is obviously harder, is widest drawn runner and looks like best over further. Would be surprised if in the finish.

#11 Champagne Cuddles (B Baker / B Shinn)
Barrier 10, 56.5kg
Certainly not disgraced in last 3 starts in G1 races. Comes through All Aged Stakes and was only narrowly beaten by Osborne Bulls on that occasion with a similar run in transit. In all likelihood will need to set a new career peak to win here and that doesn’t look overly likely.

#12 White Moss (J Coyle / K O’Hara)
Barrier 1, 56.5kg
Don’t quite know what to make of this horse – hit a big career peak last start winning the Sapphire Stakes over 1200m at Randwick and that figure would have her around the mark again here. Have my suspicions that rating might not be accurate and I’m willing to risk her.

#13 Outback Barbie (T Gollan / J Lloyd)
Barrier 2, 55kg
Missed her lead up run last week due to the Heavy track. Gets the blinkers on for the first time. From barrier 2 can possie up close enough to the speed and if the leaders tire can be in the right place at the right time. Would need to run at her absolute best and most likely a new career peak to do it though.

 

Verdict

 

Nature Strip and Osborne Bulls look to have an edge over the rest of the field – however both have question marks here. Nature Strip is a query over 1200m first up no trial and Osborne Bulls with his run on style doesn’t look to be particularly suited at Doomben. Personally couldn’t back either of them at the current quotes. Having said that I’m not particularly keen to play around them and my only plays may be a place bets on a couple of the outsiders.

 

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