Key Bets pro-punter Cameron O’Brien brings you his Group 1 Futurity Stakes preview ahead of Saturday.
The preview this week is on the G1 1400m Futurity Stakes, at Caulfield. I am assuming the track will play it’s normal pattern this trip – advantage on pace but no more so than normal there.
My speed map:
Unfortunately, like in the Orr I see very little pace on here! MANUEL will likely again get an easy time. Race fave ALIZEE is going to need to make a decision, drop out or push on to lead.
And though she maps poorly, I want to be on ALIZEE. She’s about my price at the moment, I will want $2.40 to back her, hopefully we get that.
She’s a super mare who has come back holding 114’s in Sydney effortlessly, she has more than that in her for sure, and though she’s drawn wide and maps poorly she has Bowman on, happy to back him in, so long as we get $2.40.
Runner By Runner
My individual runner comments:
He’s actually pretty evergreen, old Hartnell. We are never going to see him do 126 again like he did in the Turnbull 2016, but he won the Epsom going 119 last prep, and loves the Caulfield 1400m.
#2 LE ROMAIN
Actually maps pretty well from the wide draw, LE ROMAIN, with a lack of pace in this year’s Futurity. OK 111 first up, went out well in the Kennedy Mile going 117, has an in form D.Oliver on board, he knows his way around here!
#3 BRAVE SMASH
Fitter for two runs in and likes the Caulfield 1400m. Won this race last year settling on pace, Walker may push up from his gate therefore but the horse’s general pattern is back. He only went 112 winning it last year but progressed to a 117 the start after. Likely a target race as he has had the exact same prep, through the Aus Stakes and the Orr.
#4 REDKIRK WARRIOR
Query runner as a now 8yo. Has made up good ground both runs and was no hope LST in the Orr in that slow pace. Has a top of 118 in the 2018 Newmarket, did 109 LST… hard to mark.
I just don’t think Big Mal is going to return to his 2016 / 2017 118 form. He did have a year off and is rising 8, went 111 at Ascot but was ordinary in the Aus Stakes.
#6 MATERIAL MAN
Really nice tune up run in the Orr when this Perth 7yo was back off a slow pace and had not much room in the straight, but found the lin really strongly, and was very good after the line. Has solid peaks at 114, but as a 7yo I can’t suggest any more than that and may get buried from the gate.
#7 LAND OF PLENTY
Really nice closing run in the Orr when not suited by the slow pace (only one horse was suited that day… and he led and won), but unfortunately from a poor draw Land of Plenty is going to see similar stuff here… he’s in really good form but he’ll need an 11/10 ride to overcome the draw and lack of tempo.
#8 BEST OF DAYS
Has a best of 114, done in last year’s Kennedy Mile, he’s back OK, expecting a 114 again this prep, from the gate Williams will likely be positive here and map closer.
Had every possible leading in a slow pace in the Orr, rated 112. The same thing can happen here but I don’t think they’ll let Currie get too far out of their sights this time. I can’t give him more than 112 and SURELY something with a bit more fitness from that Orr will run him down this time???
#10 MAGIC CONSOL
A rejuvenated 9yo!! Won going 116 at MV last June when he flew, then went 114 winning the winter championship final. One run in September for a 112 winning the Dato when wide at MV that day, effectively higher. Spelled since, won a trial but only at Penola and beat walkers. He’s rising 10…
Big, powerful mare who has held 114’s effortlessly this prep. Made Hartnell look like he was nailed to the ground last start. She has somewhere between 117 – 119 in her, in my opinion, based on her two wins this prep. I am happy to push her up towards those but she does have a map problem, from the gate Bowman may have to go back, I’ve mapped her wide but I think she could end up dropping to joint last to get a trail. And there’s no pace… Having said that, she might just be better than them anyway.
OK first up behind dominant winner, worked home well, though did want to lay in. We haven’t seen his top yet, but I think it will come at a big track like Flemington.
Cameron O’Brien is an experienced pro-punter who knows how to find winners at big prices.
Boom Time ($51) and Rekindling ($21) in last year’s Caulfield and Melbourne Cups, Best Solution ($13) in this year’s Caulfield Cup and Voodoo Lad ($14) in the Winterbottom Stakes, just to name a few.
With big Group 1’s every Saturday for the next 2 months, now is the time to follow Cam in: