Group 1 South Australian Derby preview

SA Racing expert Nadia Horne brings you her Group 1 South Australian Derby preview ahead of this Saturday’s meeting at Morphettville.

 

Group 1 South Australian Derby (2500m)

 

Speed

 

Solid tempo with Manzala to hold a forward position from the inside, Resurge should come across from out wider, and if Mint To Be gets a run it should be prominent. Expect Declarationofheart to get a gun run off-speed with Gayson and Chapada prominent.

 

The Field

 

#1 Chapada (Michael Moroney / William Pike), Barrier 11
Rosehill Guineas run was a career peak performance, then to the Derby when crowded for room and never looked comfortable in the conditions. The SP profile suggested he was a leading chance and does get to a handy map position. He goes in as one of the leading contenders.

#2 Mr Quickie (Phillip Stokes / John Allen), Barrier 13
Comes up as favourite in a wide market. Has come off slow lead tempos at each run this campaign. In particular last start when he sat back off a -21.1L lead speed and recorded closing splits +12L above class average. He has a booming finish, is the best closer in the field and has the highest performance figure. The one to beat.

#3 Declarationofheart (Anthony Freedman / Clayton Douglas), Barrier 4
Caught up between horses and still too good for them when clear in the Chairmans. The encouraging part about the performance was his last 200m, when building on the line, giving the indication the trip will suit and equalling a career peak performance. Still has improvement.

#5 Secret Blaze (Tony McEvoy / Luke Currie), Barrier 6
Last start Caulfield winner off a lightning +14.6L lead tempo. The plus is he’s fit and has improved at his last two performances. At best ratings I have him just off the leading contenders.

#6 Classic Weiwei (Tony McEvoy / Barend Vorster), Barrier 17
Blinkers come off and winkers go on. Racing in career peak form but will have to find a few lengths to measure up.

#7 Star Missile (Greg Eurell / Ben Allen), Barrier 8
Came from last and ran on well behind one of the main fancies last start. Needs to find a couple of lengths to measure up.

#8 Ridgewood Drive (Anthony Freedman / Damien Thornton), Barrier 10
Rocketed into calculations last start off a fast +16.8L lead speed, backing up in seven days, giving the indication he has done well. Has the potential to improve further and doesn’t have to find much to measure right up there.

#9 Savvy Oak (Busuttin & Young / Michael Walker), Barrier 1
Racing consistently and has a will to win but this is much tougher.

#10 Mangione (Chris Waller / Dwayne Dunn), Barrier 2
Blinkers go on following a Sydney run off a fast +20.3L lead tempo. Better suited by this race shape and showed class winning at Gosford run prior. Can have much shorter.

#11 Star Status (Macdonald & Gluyas / Raquel Clark), Barrier 15
Held up and not fully tested in the Chairman’s and ran to a new career peak. Needs to improve further to be a strong winning chance, but place wouldn’t shock.

#12 Zouy’s Comet (Richard Laming / Jamie Mott), Barrier 16
Not good enough.

#13 Resurge (Tony McEvoy / Todd Pannell), Barrier 19
Put it all together with a high rating victory in weaker grade last outing. Always shown potential and rates as a place chance.

#14 Gayson (Waterhouse & Bott / Stephen Baster), Barrier 9
Improved to win in weaker grade 18/4 and rated very strongly coming through a fast run race, ranking as the best performance of the day. Well over the odds.

#15 Manzala (Nick Smart / Jarrod Lorensini), Barrier 3
Priced on his mark.

#16 Qafila (Hayes & Dabernig / Cory Parish), Barrier 7
Bounced back to career peak last start and is priced on her mark.

 

Emergencies

 

#17 Zesto (Byron Cozamanis / Jason Maskiell), Barrier 12
Recorded career peak last start but needs to find more.

#18 Mint To Be (Chris Bieg / TBA), Barrier 18
Not good enough.

#19 Ourkhani (Richard & Chantelle Jolly / Jake Toeroek), Barrier 5
This is too tough.

#20 The Mallee Mob (Terry & Karina O’Sullivan / Michael Poy), Barrier 20
Drawn wide and has to improve.

 

Verdict

 

Predicted finish: 2, 1, 3, 8

I have this year’s Derby priced quite wide. Mr Quickie (2) rates as favourite with the highest performance rating, and should settle a little off midfield with cover. He has the best close of any runner. Chapada (1) looms as a danger, had time to recover when failed to handle conditions in the ATC Derby and maps well. Declarationofheart (3) also gets to a positive map position and gives the indication he will stay. Ridgewood Drive (8) is next best. I’d be including a couple of long shots in exotics – Gayson (14) and Mangione (10).

 

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