NSW Winners pro-punter Mark Rhoden brings you his Group 1 Tancred Stakes preview, with the race set to be run and won over 2400m at Rosehill on Saturday.
Speed Map
With the scratchings, Ace High looks the logical leader. Rondinella probably tries to take up a position from her mid/wide gate. Vengeur Masque and Ventura Storm won’t be far away. Avilius to get a nice run midfield, and plenty of the dour stayers will be getting back.
Runner By Runner
#1 AVILIUS (James Cummings / James McDonald)
Barrier 7, 59kg
Chased very hard and turned in a peak performance in the Ranvet last week. The one to beat if he can repeat that.
#2 MUNTAHAA (Hayes & Dabernig / Mark Zahra)
Barrier 1, 59kg
Will be fitter, but did nothing first-up. Would be competitive on his best UK form.
#3 RED CARDINAL (Kris Lees / Kerrin McEvoy)
Barrier 12, 59kg
Very good wet tracker in great form. Suited by the trip, if not the WFA conditions against Avilius.
#5 SOUND (Michael Moroney / Damian Lane)
Barrier 2, 59kg
Chance on his best German form but shown nothing out here.
#6 PATRICK ERIN (Chris Waller / Corey Brown)
Barrier 6, 59kg
Didn’t go a yard last start. Can improve but might be looking for a dry track.
#7 VENGEUR MASQUE (Michael Moroney / Patrick Moloney)
Barrier 4, 59kg
Tough stayer who probably needs a little easier, but will race handy and run the trip out.
#8 BIG DUKE (Kris Lees / Brenton Avdulla)
Barrier 9, 59kg
On a quick backup and should be at his peak. Should be ready to improve.
#9 VENTURA STORM (Hayes & Dabernig / Jamie Kah)
Barrier 8. 59kg
Backing up from the Mornington Cup. Will race on the pace but would prefer a little easier.
#10 YOGI (Maher & Euctace / Craig Williams)
Barrier 3, 59kg
Kept trying in the Australian Cup and should be ready to improve third up.
#12 BRIMHAM ROCKS (Chris Waller / Tommy Berry)
Barrier 13, 59kg
Some chance on his best form, but yet to really show anything this preparation.
#13 ACE HIGH (David Payne / Jason Collett)
Barrier 11, 58.5kg
Will race forward but looks a risk on wet tracks.
#14 RONDINELLA (James & Wellwood / Clipperton)
Barrier 10, 56.5kg
Handles the wet and has some upside, 2400m suits now.
#15 NETTOYER (Wendy Roche / Blake Shinn)
Barrier 16, 57kg
Kept trying in the Ranvet but needs easier.
#16 DOUKHAN (Kris Lees / Glyn Schofield)
Barrier 5, 59kg
Wet tracker outclassed at WFA.
Verdict
If Avilius can repeat his last start effort on the quick backup at 2400m, he should win again – but now into around $1.60, he’s not a betting proposition for me.
There’s some value in the early price of Big Duke who is racing very well and looks very near his peak. Red Cardinal has a chance but hasn’t been missed in the early market, with Rondinella and Yogi, at pretty big odds, next best.
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