Handicapping the Caulfield Cup jockeys

Punters have been betting on the Caulfield Cup for many months now and the race has been dissected in a hundred different ways. So let’s make it 101 by assessing the jockeys. Today I’ll look at who will be riding the fancied runners to see how well they normally perform at the Caulfield track. Just five horses are under $15 and I’ve taken a look at each of their riders to see how they stack up. Of course to analyse the race professionally there is a lot more to consider than just the jockeys, but it’s at least worth looking at before you place your bets on the Cup. Michael Rodd rides the red-hot favourite December Draw and he has a good record at the track. He has had almost 240 rides at Caulfield since 2006 and those mounts have won more than 4% on turnover using best tote odds and betting proportionately, which is a fairer assessment than level stakes. That stacks up very well against the average of -8% for all jockeys at Caulfield during this time. Corey Brown rides the second favourite Lucas Cranach but those of you who got on at the big early odds will not be pleased to hear his Caulfield record. Brown has a terrible strike-rate (6%) and loss on turnover (42%) at the course. Add those stats to his recent poor form and Lucas Cranach backers will be hoping he pulls the right rein tomorrow. Equal third favourite Green Moon will be ridden by Nick Hall whose Caulfield record is right around the average at -7% for his 270 rides. Hall’s overall Melbourne metro record of -12% is below average. Hong Kong based hoop Darren Beadman rides the other third favourite Mighty High but we don’t have a lot of Caulfield data to work from since he’s had just 9 rides (for 1 winner) since 2006. Expand that to Melbourne metro rides the last 5 years and there still isn’t a lot to base any judgement on, with just 27 rides for 3 winners and a substantial loss on turnover. The last horse we’ll look at in this analysis is 5th favourite Southern Speed who’ll be ridden by Craig Williams. His 430 Caulfield mounts have lost 5% on turnover which is marginally better than the norm. So purely in terms of the Caulfield record of these jockeys, punters taking the shorts about December Draw will be feeling very confident that he’ll get the run of the race. Michael Rodd has plenty of experience at the track, a very good Caulfield profit performance and his confidence is sky high following the win (and pose for the camera) of Atlantic Jewel on Wednesday. Good luck tomorrow.