Magic Millions 2yo Classic Restricted Listed – 1200m
Track: Expecting a firm track here – last Saturday the track was rated a Good 4 upgraded to a Good 3 during the meeting but my data suggests was one of the faster tracks in recent memory so it was most probably firm rather than good.
Without any substantial rain to speak of since then and none predicted before Saturday think we can expect to see some fast times. Looks like the rail was an advantage in run last meeting though didn’t need to be hard rail in straight and expecting a similar pattern here with the rail in essentially the same position – advantage to be on pace and on the rails but not a death sentence if you’re not.
Pace: Generally races where the winner gets $1.2 million aren’t dawdling affairs. Expecting a fast run race here with plenty of the potential leaders drawn out wide. The Odyssey might try and make use of inside the inside barrier to hold the lead but will be under enormous pressure from Czarson, Betaima, Unite And Conquer and Alburq (if he gets a run) from out wide looking to cross. Tempo should suit something coming from off the speed.
#1 Unite And Conquer (Waterhouse & Bott / A Hyeronimus)
Barrier 18, 57kg
Undefeated from 2 starts. On both occasions dictated from the lead in slowly run races. From wide gate will have to work if wants to lead and could get trapped wide. Out to 1200m for first time in a high pressure race with 29 days between runs. Is a Waterhouse runner so will be rock hard fit but don’t like the set up here.
#2 The Odyssey (Kelly Schweida / James Orman)
Barrier 2, 57kg
Helped by the barrier draw here but raced on pace in slowly run race and didn’t have the acceleration to match Exhilarate last start. Couple of wins have been in average races. Hard to see it winning.
#3 Yes Yes Yes (Darren Weir / Mark Zahra)
Barrier 21, 57kg A lot to like about the win at the Valley last start when trapped 3 wide with cover mid field against a very slow tempo. Showed a very nice turn of foot to win comfortably in the end. Gets blinkers on first time. Really like the set up from a fitness perspective. Barrier is a shocker but tempo will suit his run on style. The horse I’m most keen on but will need more than his fair share of luck.
#4 Dubious (Maher & Eustace / Michael Walker)
Barrier 7, 57kg
Looks to lob in the perfect spot 1 or 2 pairs back and 1 off the fence. Showed quality when winning last start @ Eagle Farm over 1000m when trapped wide no cover for the duration. Question mark is the 1200m but if can run it out then this race could be his for the taking.
#5 Sebrakate (Hayes & Dabernig / Regan Bayliss)
Barrier 4, 57kg
Not blessed with enough gate speed to make use of the inside draw. Well exposed now and doesn’t seem to have quality required to win this race.
#6 Hightail (P & P Snowden / Hugh Bowman)
Barrier 19, 57kg
On the quick back up again having won @ Kensington last start over 1150m in a high rating race. Looks to have enough ability to win if things go his way and should be peaking in fitness. From the wide gate looks a danger of being trapped wide on a fast speed though.
#7 Czarson (Waterhouse & Bott / Tim Clark)
Barrier 15, 57kg
Looks most likely of those drawn out wide to be able to cross and lead. Previous win over 1200m is a big tick but has had 5 weeks between runs. Did dictate in slow tempo when won over 1200m and won’t get that luxury here. If can get to the fence and lead then have to give a decent chance particularly if the track is favouring runners on the fence.
#8 Exhilarates (James Cummings / Kerrin Mc Evoy)
Barrier 9, 55kg
Won the lead up race 7 days ago in good style showing a nice turn of foot against a slow tempo. From a relatively low draw looks like she settles in a nice spot 1 off the fence and off the speed. With even luck is hard to see how she is not in the finish somewhere.
#9 Betaima (Toby Edmonds / Jeff Lloyd)rin Mc Evoy)
Barrier 17, 55kg
Had every possible chance last start and was easily beaten by Exhilarates. Much harder setup here from the wide draw with plenty of pace in the race and up to 1200m for the first time. Leave me out.
#10 Champagne Boom (Hayes & Dabernig / Craig Williams)
Barrier 3, 55kg
No real gate speed so from low draw could still get right back. Will have to show considerable improvement on what she has done so far to be competitive.
#11 Better Reflection (John Wigginton / Nigel Seymour)
Barrier 14, 55kg
The fairy tale horse from Rockhampton. Showed ability when winning last start – trapped 3 wide the trip yet still put them away comfortably. Figures weren’t great out of that race but at only 3rd start can improve. Drawn awkwardly but with emergencies drawn inside of her and most of the pace drawn to her outside could land in a good spot. Definitely one of the outsiders that interests me.
#12 Girls Are Ready (Joe Cleary / Jess Taylor)
Barrier 10, 55kg
Has won twice over 1200m but both have been on Heavy going. Looks to have had the race run to suit on both occasions. Draw not the worst and could be favoured by tempo again. One that I’m having a lot of trouble lining up coming off the Heavy track runs. Don’t really want to be with her but will be keeping safe in my market.
#13 Courseshewill (Liam Birchley / Matthew Mc Gillivray)
Barrier 1, 55kg
Drawn 1 but not been able to be competitive against some of the outsiders in this race last 2 starts. Out of depth here.
#14 Movie Role (Hayes & Dabernig / James McDonald)
Barrier 13, 55kg
Ran strongly enough to line in winning last start over 1000m @ Randwick and expect to go back from the draw here. Could be suited by tempo and might be able to tag one of the more fancied runners into the race. Will need to improve on what it’s done but at only 3rd start that’s possible.
#15 Oh Five Glory (P & W Hulbert / Taylor Marshall)
Barrier 6, 55kg
Had everything run to suit when won over 1200m 2 starts ago and not in same grade as Exhilarates last start. Not up to this.
#16 Champagne Jet (Toby Edmonds / Tommy Berry)
Barrier 11, 55kg
Found a relatively high rating race last start and was found wanting. That fits with prior competitive / winning performances in slow races. Be surprised if is competitive here.
#17 (e) Gala Miss (Kelly Schweida / Mark Du Plessis)
Barrier 16, 55kg
Most advantaged runner in winning low rating race on debut and hasn’t shown improvement on that. Unlikely to be competitive if gets a run.
#18 (e) Krameric (Chris Waller / Not Named)
Barrier 5, 57kg
Well exposed having 5th start here. Debut run behind Dubious was good but hasn’t really produced anything to that level since. Did like the way that he found the line last start. If gets a run will be in a nice spot and if runs up to his best rating can be competitive.
#19 (e) Rome (P & P Snowden / Brett Prebble)
Barrier 8, 57kg
Unlikely to get a start. Well backed last start when resuming over 1200m @ Doomben. Ran on nicely against a slow tempo. Second up and at only 3rd start expect improvement but will need to be significant to be winning.
#20 (e) Alburq (Michael Moroney / Not Named)
Barrier 20, 57kg
Very unlikely to get a start. Ran 2nd to Yes Yes Yes last start but had all the favours leading in a slow tempo race. Needs a big improvement to be competitive.
#21 (e) Lubuk (Chris Waller / Not Named)
Barrier 12, 57kg
Very unlikely to get a start. Liked the way it has found the line the last 2 runs but even then looked a level below what is required to win here.
Wide open race – no stand out runner like we have had in previous years. Luck in running and tempo of the race looks set to play an important role here and I wouldn’t be surprised to see a winner at big odds. Even with the wide draw Yes Yes Yes is the horse that interests me the most though I’m not sure there is any value in the price. Of the roughies Better Reflection, Movie Role and Krameric (if it gets a start) are the ones that I want to be with. Good luck!
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