We’ve got a couple of decent Group races at Caulfield this week, ahead of the first Group 1 of the calendar year, the CF Orr Stakes, next week. The three-year-olds will battle it out in the Group 3 Manfred Stakes. Read on for a full preview of the race from our Melbourne racing gun, Trevor Lawson.
Manfred Stakes: Trevor Lawson’s preview
Track The rail is out nine metres so it’ll play on-pace – the further the rail goes out, the bigger the turning circle. It’ll be fresh ground and there’s not going to be any rain, so you’ll want to be forward and on the fence. The wind is a south-westerly which is behind them down the side, which will play for leaders too.
Speed Unflinching will lead from Generation, with Marine One sitting behind them. Lina’s Legend will be next, Umgawa back on the fence and then Zethus should settle last.
GENERATION struggled first-up last prep, then was given 49 days off and ran up to his best. He maps to sit outside the leader. McNeil has winning ways with the stable and he’s certainly the horse to beat.
ZETHUS is first-up for a year and his best figure was on a wet track. He’ll give them a start and it’s very hard to see him catching them.
MARINE ONE has been up a long time, but continues to run well. He should box-seat here and will be a danger to the favourite.
UNFLINCHING is an undefeated colt who steps to 1200 metres for the first time, but that shouldn’t be a concern. He looks well found in the early market.
UMGAWA is racing well in lesser grades, and he comes back in trip here which is a concern too. I doubt he has the class to figure here.
Flemington trainer Troy @MaluaRacing admits Saturday’s Manfred Stakes at Caulfield is a test of the water for Umgawa.
The three year old has shown good abilities this prep but how does he match up in the 3YO crop ? Troy says we won’t be changing anything – Get back an run on.
— Andrew Bensley (@AndrewBensley) February 3, 2022
LINAS LEGEND won his first two runs last prep before failing and being spelled. He looks a progressive type, but he may find these just a bit too quick over the short trip.
Manfred Stakes: Trevor Lawson’s betting approach
I have Generation on top, the same as the bookies, but their price isn’t very appealing.
Marine One is next for me and looks to be the one presenting the value.
If you’re looking to lay one, I can’t agree with the price on Unflinching. I have it marked around $9 so I think he’s well and truly under the odds.
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