- The field for the Makybe Diva Stakes is of very high quality
- It’s hard to justify Mystic Journey’s price at the moment, despite her undoubted talent.
I’ve found it hard to get Mystic Journey anywhere near her market price for tomorrow’s Makybe Diva Stakes
I’ve certainly got her favourite in the race, but she’s a lot longer than the market price for mine.
On my ratings, to get her to the price she is at the moment, this would have to be a career-best run. So let’s look at exactly where she’s at.
She was first-up over 1400 metres in the PB Lawrence and won nicely, but rated well down on her best.
She beat Cliff’s Edge, Hartnell (who’s had an extra run since) and Sirankabad comfortably. On my ratings she was a length and bit down on her career best (the Australian Guineas and All-Star Mile wins in autumn).
I’ve rated her to her best here, which is a lot better than what she did first-up.
She’s had 28 days between run, but she’s had similar before so that’s not an issue.
The major problem with this race is you know what she can do, but her price gets dictated by others who are harder to price at moment.
Yucatan of course produced that huge Herbert Power figure last year, but he resumes from 312 days off. I’ve rated him two steps off that and got him at $8 for this. He’d be favourite if I put him in at the Herbert Power figure
Hartnell was well beaten by Mystic Journey first-up and has had another run since. He improved second-up and has a good pattern second and third-up – he won the Epsom and ran second in the All-Star Mile, both third-up. So he could be a big improver here, and probably has fitness on Mystic Journey.
— Victoria Racing Club (@FlemingtonVRC) September 13, 2019
Scales Of Justice was terrific winning the Memsie and has been very consistent this prep. He’s won over the mile early in preps, so the distance is no problem.
Kings Will Dream has a good base of figures from last prep which make him competitive here. He returned from injury at Randwick and ran home nicely. He gets Zahra on here and is at the mile, and could improve and have some chance at odds.
Nights Watch had no luck first up and is good at this trip and good second-up, winning this time last year.
Humidor is another year older and has had one run since the Cox Plate, which was a clean-out run. He’s won second-up at his last two preps but off much shorter breaks. I’ve rated him down off that – he’s a bit older so might want one more run.
I’ve rated her to her best and can’t get her to the market price, so she has to go better again here to justify it. Obviously, all the others that we mentioned above impact that – if they’re all not there, then she’s shorter.
Personally I think she’ll drift before the race, so if I was looking to back her I’d be doing so late. But I doubt she’ll get anywhere near my price.
Would I lay her? Yes – I’d be willing to at this price and have the rest of this high-quality field running for me. I’d lay her at anything under $2.40.
It’ll be a good watch in any case – I think this will be the run the gives a true indication of her ability and the rating she produces here will be a good guide to her future.