Oakleigh Plate 2021: Trevor Lawson’s Preview
Speed: Ancestry and Anders will lead with a large group behind them. Portland Sky will sit off the pace. Garner will be midfield. Prophet’s Thumb and Brooklyn Hustle will get back.
ZOUTORI ran second in this last year. He doesn’t look well graded here. A rough chance.
DIRTY WORK won at this track and distance at weight-for-age in the spring, albeit in a small field. He’s a rough chance here, but the inside barrier is a concern.
KEMALPASA is better suited down the straight than around the Caulfield bend.
STANDOUT was okay first-up in the spring… so he’s a rough chance off that.
MIZZY has some terrific figures, but they’re 18 months old. She resumed off a long spell and did nothing, and then resumed again and… did nothing. Prefer to see where she’s at.
ANCESTRY was undefeated last prep and races on the speed. He looked to have more to give in a few of his runs. I think he can run to new peak here.
CELEBRITY QUEEN was only narrowly beaten at Group 1 level in the Winterbottom a few starts back. If she runs to that here then she has to have some claims.
BOLD STAR ran well first-up, but would need to improve significantly off that to be a chance here.
BROOKLYN HUSTLE is good fresh, and good in fast-run races – which this should be! She’ll get a long way back from the wide barrier which is a slight concern. Will be running on.
GARNER ran well first-up but his best runs look to be in races with a lesser tempo. I’ll avoid here.
HOW WOMANTIC isn’t racing as well as she has in the past and gets a non-claiming apprentice here. Pass.
PROPHET’S THUMB returned to form last start with Jamie Kah on. She loses Kah here and gets a wide barrier. Rough claims.
SWORD OF MERCY was held up last start, but her best form isn’t good enough for this.
PORTLAND SKY ran well first-up, beating two of the placegetters from last week’s CS Hayes at Flemington. But that was a slow tempo race, which this certainly will not be. I’m not sure he can cope with the fast tempo here
HANSEATIC is honest, but will get a long way back from the barrier and I doubt he can get into it
RANTING won a three-horse race in the spring, but I doubt he has the class to compete here
ANDERS ran terrifically both first and second-up in the spring. He then had issues before being beaten by Ranting. I’m happy to forgive his last two runs. He’s trialled well leading into this and may be able to run back to his best.
Verdict: It’s a wide-open race, as this race tends to be… my market is $5+ the field. It’s Ancestry and Anders’ race for mine, with a big gap back to the rest.
More from Trevor Lawson
Oakleigh Plate: Past winners
2018: Russian Revolution
2015: Shamal Wind
2014: Lankan Rupee
2013: Mrs Onassis
2011: Eagle Falls
Punt like a pro with Trevor Lawson’s Melbourne Ratings. As well as a full set of rated prices, speed maps and suggested bets, you can spend each and every raceday with a pro punter: the Melbourne Ratings Live Page gives you direct access to Trev himself to ask whatever you like. If you're keen to win, it’s the only way to punt.
Punt like a pro with Trevor Lawson’s Melbourne Ratings.
As well as a full set of rated prices, speed maps and suggested bets, you can spend each and every raceday with a pro punter: the Melbourne Ratings Live Page gives you direct access to Trev himself to ask whatever you like.
If you're keen to win, it’s the only way to punt.