pakenham synthetic, pakenham cup

Pro punter Trevor Lawson gives us his thoughts on the 2021 Listed Pakenham Cup.

This is not a bad race this year – it’s about what you’d like to get at this level. There’s a few horses going very well at the moment that are running in it, which is good to see.

Pakenham Cup: The speed

Think We’re Due will take up the lead I think, and Good Idea will also go forward. Makayan, Smokin’ Romans and Team Captain will sit handy, and they’ve announced that In A Twinkling will go forward too.

Pakenham Cup: The contenders

GOOD IDEA is racing well and should be fully fit now. He’s trained here and should be ready to run to a peak figure this prep.

SKYMAN is racing honestly at the moment, but he’s drawn wide and I’m happy to risk him at the trip.

MANKAYAN is racing very well, running second in the Hotham and then winning last start at Cranbourne. He maps well here and has solid claims.

PAPPALINO is getting fitter now and steps out in trip, which looks to suit him. Rough chance for mine.

SMOKIN’ ROMANS has been up a long time but is racing well. Second in the Bendigo Cup last start. Gets blinkers again which is a big positive with the Maher / Eustace stable, and Kah goes on. Hardest to beat.

FLASH AAH ran well last start in the Sandown Classic, but it was a bunched finish and a very slowly run race. Rough chance here from the barrier.

TEAM CAPTAIN has produced two peak figures since joining the Cumani camp, winning the Hamilton Cup and then at Flemington on Cup Day. Maps to settle well here and will give a good sight.

LONG ARM has been struggling this prep but should be fully fit now. This may be a target race but still, only rough claims.

MIMI’S AWARD ran well in a fast-run race last time. She steps up in distance here but will get a long way back. Not sure she can run down horses of better ability that will settle in front of her.

FUTURE SCORE, IN A TWINKLING, MOSH MUSIC, THINK WE’RE DUE and CONSTANTINOPLE aren’t good enough to challenge here for mine.

Pakenham Cup: Final thoughts

I’ve got Smokin’ Romans on top at around $3, from Team Captain at about $5. I reckon Mankayan is unders at the moment and couldn’t entertain it at the price.

For a value play, I reckon Good Idea is good overs. I could have it around half it’s current quote.

Good luck!

Punt like a pro with Trevor Lawson’s Melbourne Ratings.

As well as a full set of rated prices, speed maps and suggested bets, you can spend each and every raceday with a pro punter: the Melbourne Ratings Live Page gives you direct access to Trev himself to ask whatever you like.

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