Spring Carnival, PB Lawrence, mystic journey
  • Looking forward for the winners from PB Lawrence Day – opportunities in the futures markets
  • Results from the last five years: what could it mean for Bivouac, Exhilarates, Begood Toya Mother and Mystic Journey?

Last Saturday’s meeting at Caulfield, PB Lawrence Stakes Day, is sometimes hailed as the start of the Spring Carnival.

While not hosting any Group 1 events (and technically being held during winter!), there are several Black Type events on the card that boasted plenty of big names returning to the turf.

So if it’s a kick-off point for quality horses, can the day be relied upon as a form reference for bigger races in the coming weeks?

We checked out the winners from PB Lawrence Day over the past five years, and looked at any results they managed in Black Type races that campaign…

Group 3 Vain Stakes

1100m, 3YO colts & geldings, set weights + penalties

2019 Winner: Bivouac (J Cummings / J Bowman)

Bivouac was the star performer on PB Lawrence Stakes Day, the $3 favourite blowing away the field in the Vain Stakes in a performance perhaps more fitting of a $1.20 shot. The race hasn’t produced any G1 winners in recent years, though no others have won with the authority of Bivouac. You’d be brave to bet against him defying that recent history.

What’s not entirely clear is the path he’ll take. Trainer James Cummings doesn’t seem convinced at the moment, and the markets reflect that: with Ladbrokes he’s $7 equal favourite for the Golden Rose, and on the third line – at $14 – for the Caulfield Guineas.

2018: Tony Nicconi

THIRD G3 Blue Sapphire Stakes (Caulfield, 1200m)

2017: Jukebox

SECOND G2 Danehill Stakes (Flemington, 1200m)

SECOND G3 Blue Sapphire Stakes (Caulfield, 1200m)

2016: Russian Revolution

WON G2 Roman Consul Stakes (Randwick, 1200m)

2015: Gold Symphony

WON G3 H.D.F. McNeil Stakes (Caulfield, 1200m)

2014: Get The Nod

No further stakes placings for campaign.

Group 3 Quezette Stakes

1100m, 3YO fillies, set weights + penalties

2019 Winner: Exhilarates (J Cummings / K McEvoy)

Another dominant winner on the day in Exhilarates, and the recent history from the Quezette says it’s a reasonable indicator of things to come. Sunlight is a superstar, but I Am A Star also went on to win a Group 1 that spring, while Sabatini was third in the Thousand Guineas. Keep a close eye on Exhilarates… Ladbrokes have her at $12 for the Thousand Guineas – if she goes that way then she’ll be starting a lot shorter than that.

2018: Sunlight

WON G3 Thoroughbred Club Stakes (Caulfield, 1200m)

WON G1 Coolmore Stud Stakes (Flemington, 1200m)

2017: Crown Witness

No further stakes placings for campaign.

2016: I Am A Star

SECOND G1 Thousand Guineas (Caulfield, 1600m)

THIRD G2 Fillies Classic (Moonee Valley, 1600m)

WON G1 Empire Rose Stakes (Flemington, 1600m)

2015: Petits Filous

WON Listed Cap D’Antibes Stakes (Flemington, 1100m)

2014: Sabatini

THIRD Listed Cap D’Antibes Stakes (Flemington, 1100m)

THIRD G1 Thousand Guineas (Caulfield, 1600m)

Listed Regal Roller Stakes

1200m, 3YO+, handicap

2019 Winner: Begood Toya Mother (D Bowman / D Bates)

Begood Toya Mother took his winning streak to six in the Regal Roller Stakes, which is the first race in the MRC’s new Everest Series. This series culminates with the G2 Schillaci Stakes, where the winner will gain an automatic entry into The Everest. The last two winners of this race, Osborne Bulls and Vega Magic, have gone on to place in the Everest.

Trainer Daniel Bowman doesn’t appear to be heading down that path however, probably preferring the Sir Rupert Clarke – where Regal Roller Stakes winner Voodoo Lad ran second in 2016. You can get $5 about her with Ladbrokes.

2018: Osborne Bulls

THIRD The Everest (Randwick, 1200m)

WON G2 Linlithgow Stakes (Flemington, 1200m)

2017: Vega Magic

WON G1 Memsie Stakes (Caulfield, 1600m)

SECOND The Everest (Randwick, 1200m)

2016: Voodoo Lad

WON Listed Chandler Macleod Stakes (Moonee Valley, 1200m)

SECOND G1 Sir Rupert Stakes (Caulfield, 1400m)

WON G3 Moonga Stakes (Caulfield, 1400m)

2015: Setinum

No further stakes placings for campaign.

2014: Hard Stride

THIRD G3 The Heath (Caulfield, 1100m)

Group 2 PB Lawrence Stakes

1400m, 3YO+, WFA

2019 Winner: Mystic Journey (A Trinder / A Darmanin)

What do you say about Mystic Journey? The last winner of the PB Lawrence Stakes that went on to win a Group 1 that campaign was Mourinho in 2015, in the Underwood Stakes. Mystic Journey looks headed to the Makybe Diva at Flemington before embarking on a Cox Plate. She’s even money for the Makybe Diva, with Ladbrokes having the remainder of the field at $12+. With the race being her stated target, it’s hard to see that price getting out very far.

2018: Showtime

No further stakes placings for campaign

2017: Hartnell

SECOND G1 Makybe Diva Stakes (Flemington, 1600m)

SECOND G1 Underwood Stakes (Caulfield, 1800m)

2016: Miss Rose De Lago

THIRD G2 Stocks Stakes (Moonee Valley, 1600m)

2015: Mourinho

WON G1 Underwood Stakes (Caulfield, 1800m)

2014: Star Rolling

No further stakes placings for campaign.

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