Group 1 racing returns to Sydney this week, and Champion Bets NSW analyst Nathan Snow has run his eye over the $1 million Golden Rose.
Rosehill Race 6: De Bortoli Wines Golden Rose (1400 metres)
Group 1, set weights, three-year-olds
The speed story
“There’s three horses with good speed: El Divino (gate 4), Thronum (gate 13), and the query – the Brisbane horse Chamalu (gate 1), which showed good speed in his first and only start. So it’s just whether they want (Chamalu) to contest or take a sit up in grade here, “says Snow.
“At worst they’re going average speed… or if Chamalu contests, they’re going quick and it’ll really suit the backmarkers.”
In the mix
That pace will be critical to the hopes of El Divino (Waterhouse & Bott / Bowman), says Snow.
“It all depends on the pace scenario, if it can get an ok run up on the pace, it’ll give a good kick.”
Further back will be Astern (O’Shea / McDonald), an obvious contender after the impressive win in the Run to the Rose two weeks back.
“It was a great run, but my biggest query is gate 12 and where it’ll be on the map.
“It’s best easing. It may have to go right back or it may be planted wide, it’s a bit up in the air.”
Encouragingly for punters, Snow sees a bit of value in some the longer shots, such as Nikitas (Waller / Angland) and Mediterranean (Snowden / Shinn), who both impressed in the Run to the Rose.
“(Nikitas) was a really good little run behind Astern – he sat three-wide outside the speed and stuck on really well. It looks to map well and be a really good roughie,” says Snow.
“Mediterranean was the furthest back of any horse here, and got held up a little but was strong late… from gate 5 I think he’ll be a bit closer and get a beautiful run settling midfield.”
Lastly from the lead-up, Impending (O’Shea / Avdulla) also looks to be an interesting runner.
“It was ridden a touch closer than it should have been and just over-raced a little, and got held up slightly, but still hit the line ok.”
Moving back to the top of the market, Divine Prophet (Hawkes / Berry) surprised a few, including Snowy, with his first-up win at Randwick:
“In both trials it looked to me to be a much improved horse, though first-up I thought it’d just hit the line well and give a good run. But it was just a super win.
“Up to 1400 metres and second up are both ticks… he’ll get a good run midfield and I think will be very hard to beat.”
At the other end of the scale is Yankee Rose (Vandyke / Purton):
“Both trials have been really average this time… I can’t possibly back it and I think it’s massive unders.”
Of course there’s no such concerns with super filly Omei Sword (Waller / Moreira), for whom the money just keeps coming after her commanding win in the Silver Shadow.
“This is very, very talented filly with a really good turn of foot. She had three absolute top-notch trials and then just a ripping win… I think she gets a beautiful run,’ says Snow.
Put a line through…
Good Standing (Cummings / Schofield) just doesn’t have the record to suggest he’ll be competitive at this level, nor do Queensland runners O’Reilly Circus (Birchley / Collett) and Oink (Schwieda / Hammersley). As mentioned, fellow banana bender Chamalu (Birchley / Orman) may shape the race early, but don’t expect him to be figuring in the finish.
Thronum (Waterhouse & Bott / McEvoy) has had a reasonable winter but that’s where he’s better suited, and the 1400 metres is too much of a query to have him here – likewise with Derryn (Hayes & Dabernig / Clark).
“The winner comes from Omei Sword, Divine Prophet and Astern, but all look pretty well found in the market and there won’t necessarily be a lot of value.
“Put a different jockey on Omei Sword and it’s unbeatable. But I’m petrified of Moreira… I think he’s a very, very good jockey in Hong Kong, he’s got incredible balance and horses run for him… but the last few times he’s been to Sydney I think the local jockeys have really handled him and put him where they wanted him.
“But I hope he can prove me wrong, because it would be nice to be able to see what the rest of the world sees!
“My gut says there’ll be enough pace for Divine Prophet.”
“Nikitas, Impending and Mediterranean are all overs for mine”
Nathan Snow is a professional punter and former bookmaker with a highly successful record on NSW racing. Our NSW Ratings service give you access to all of Snowy’s assessed prices, speed map comments and recommended bets, as well as a direct line to the man himself during meetings, via our live page.