Caulfield Cup, Caulfield
  • Speed map, rated market and runner comments from pro punter Cameron O’Brien
  • Cam thinks Gatting looks backable at current pricing.

One of the biggest races on the calendar for the Spring Carnival, or in fact for the year, is the Group 1 Caulfield Cup, and it’s usually a very hard race to pick!

I’ve found the winner of the last two Caulfield Cups in my preview of the race – Best Solution and Boom Time – and both at nice prices. Hopefully the same again here!

Speed map

The speed map is very important, however it’s a tough race to map with so many internationals. I think many runners will back and it might get a bit crowded back there. I have mapped FINCHE (6) wide but to be honest I am pretty sure they’ll end up outside the lead on him

Rated market

Note I’ve left the emergencies out, as they’re unlikely to get a start. I don’t give SOUND (19), NEUFBOSC (20) or TRUE SELF (21) much chance anyway, however if PRINCE OF ARRAN (22) did get a start I would have him single figure odds and would be backing him. I doubt he will though.

So, assuming the emergencies are out, I have CONSTANTINOPLE (11) as a clear bet. I also have a few roughies who I think can win and are well over my odds in THE CHOSEN ONE (16), GOLD MOUNT (7) and BRIMHAM ROCKS (15).

At this stage I will be looking to back all four with my biggest bet on Constantinople.

Key chances

CONSTANTINOPLE (11) is a progressive European four-year-old now with Hayes, and apparently working really strongly. He rated 116 off a 114 the start before and that makes him a solid chance here. He has a few quirks and they’ve put a lot of gear changes on him but he’s an undoubted talent and he maps well. Top rater for mine.

THE CHOSEN ONE (16) won well here last Saturday rating 115 and I have no reason to think he can’t hold – except he’s drawn off the track. He’ll need luck on the map but on the strength of his strong 115 with just 52 kgs here, he is a live chance if he gets it.

FINCHE (6) is a very genuine galloper working up towards his top. He was strong on the line at Flemington, going 113, and will be further improved. He has a top of 116 and is right in it here.

GOLD MOUNT (7) is first up off 98 days. He’s a seven-year-old now but is in form and went well going 116 at York two starts back over 2600 metres. He maps maps quite well here too.

BRIMHAM ROCKS (15) may go around at silly odds. He won strongly here over 2000 metres two starts back, going 114, before he had no luck at Randwick. I think he’s better the Melbourne way anyway. He has drawn wide and may have to go right back and will need luck, but with only 52kgs he can win.

MR QUICKIE (12) is third-up into the race and as a four-year-old I don’t think we’ve seen his top yet. He was very good first-up closing out strongly and going 113. He put in a bit of a flat one second-up but can bounce back.

MER DE GLACE (3) is the Japanese runner who has won his last five, and is a 115 horse. He copped a weight penalty going from 53 to 55.5, which is a bit of a downer, but he’s a solid Group performed horse with a top rider on. Drawn wide is a concern.

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