Pro Punter Preview: 2019 Geelong Cup

Geelong Cup: track conditions

I’ve had somebody walk the track and got a report. It’s in terrific condition and very even across. It traditionally plays well for this meeting and should be no different today.

Geelong Cup: speed map

Haky will lead, and I think Prince Of Arran (3) will go forward from the wide barrier and sit outside the leader. Steel Prince will go forward too, while True Self (10), Red Galileo (7) and Supernova (11) will settle about midfield.

Geelong is a bit of a unique track. It has a contour to it that sees them coming downhill from the 800-metre mark to about the 400-metre mark. They don’t tend to make ground with a decline, so it favours those on the speed. It flattens out and there’s a nice long straight after that, but it does have an impact.

Geelong Cup: Preview & Tips

It’s an interesting race this year, as usual. There’s the presence of the internationals that has become a regular feature as they try to win their way into the Melbourne Cup. This year there’s Prince Of Arran (Charlie Fellowes), Red Galileo (Saeed Bin Suroor, Godolphin), Haky (John Hammond) and True Self (Willie Mullins).

All or nothing for Prince of Arran – @FellowesRacing updates us on the chances of last years Melbourne Cup third as he bids to book his place in the race with a win in the Geelong Cup tomorrow morning… pic.twitter.com/O5B0rzThCP

— At The Races (@AtTheRaces) October 22, 2019

It’s always a little tricky to rate them of course, with the big question being how they handle the travel. It’s natural that most would lose a bit off their ratings at home, particularly for their first runs, but it’s not always the case. For example, Mer De Glace actually went better in the Caulfield Cup, winning impressively and outperforming his home ratings.

For today I’ve got Prince Of Arran (3) on top. He was terrific in the Herbert Power, being narrowly beaten by The Chosen One, who went on to perform decently in the Caulfield Cup where he wasn’t really suited. Prince Of Arran only has to repeat his Herbert Power figure to be favourite here, and he probably has some improvement in him as well.

Supernova (11) ran a credible race in the Bart Cummings, running second behind Surprise Baby. He should improve off that here at his second run at the distance range – that’s only natural – and won’t be far away.

The Godolphin horse, Red Galileo (7) is a nine-year-old now but you have to respect the run in the the Ebor, where he was second behind Mustajeer, beaten less than a length. Mustajeer franked that form in the Caulfield Cup, performing well and finishing sixth, beaten by less than two lengths

Red Galileo also beat home True Self (10) and Prince Of Aaran in the Ebor. And I’ve rated him down a touch off the Ebor, as he hadn’t run to that level before. He’s in this.

I’ve rated Steel Prince (8) to his best for this despite a couple of doubts over him, mainly concerning his preparation.  He beat Surprise Baby in May, though Surprise Baby has improved since then and I’m not sure this that this horse has. The biggest issue is he’s had 32 days between runs – he missed a run in the Herbert Power when he was scratched at the barrier. That is, of course, never ideal.

Numbers: 3 – 11 – 7 – 8