Golden Rose, Rosehill
  • Runner-by-runner comments, positives and negatives for each
  • Dean has found value in multiple runners

Historical Race Profile

  • Over the past 8 years, virtually all winners and close seconds in the race were second up. Big Positive: Castelvecchio, Prince Fawaz, Yes Yes Yes, Kubrick
  • Only one was third-up. Slight Negative: Exceedance, Dawn Passage, Yao Dash
  • None were fourth-up. Big Negative: Bivouac
  • Most came from Run To The Rose (1200m) two weeks before and ran well (in the first four). Big Positive: Bivouac, Yes Yes Yes, Exceedance, Kubrick
  • Some from the Stan Fox / Dulcify (1500m) two weeks before, finishing third or fourth. Slight Positive: Castelvecchio
  • Some from 1300 metres three weeks before: Slight Positive: Yao Dash
  • Chris Waller and Godolphin (through a mix of trainers – O’Shea, Snowden) have dominated the race (5 of last 8 winners). Big Positive: Yes Yes Yes, Kubrick, Bivouac
  • Waller horses had run in Brisbane in the Group 1 JJ Atkins (1600m). Big Positive: Kubrick,
  • Seven of last secen won a black type race as a two-year-old. Big Positive: Castelvecchio, Bivouac, Prince Fawaz, Yes Yes Yes, Kubrick
  • Six of the last seven winners ran in Group 1 as a two-year-old. Big Positive: Castelvecchio, Prince Fawaz, Yes Yes Yes, Kubrick.
  • None have won or run secnd in their first prep, nor with less than three starts. Big Negative: Yao Dash.
  • A race for colts… geldings have never run a place. Big Negative: Yao Dash.
1 Castelvecchio

Current Price: $11

3 Big Positives, 1 Slight Positive

Talented colt with a powerful finish who won the $2 million Inglis Millennium and the Group 1 Champagne Stakes as a two-year-old. Ran fourth first-up in the Dulcify, a race that has produced the last two winners of this race in The Autumn Sun & Trapeze Artist.

2 Bivouac

Current Price: $2.50

3 Big Positives, 1 Big Negative

Won the Run To The Rose, but this is his first attempt past 1200 metres, and he goes into this race fourth-up. No horse has ever won or gone close with that profile. Looks a false favourite to me. Has some positives with the lead-up form and the trainer in particular, but doesn’t profile like past winners at all and a strong 1400 metres remains a query. I feel he’s a B-Grader who has been flattered by being up and going ahead of the rest so far. Is a lay for me at the price.

3 Prince Fawaz

Current Price: $41

3 Big Positives

Highly regarded colt who won the Group 1 JJ Atkins as a two-year-old. Was plain first up when sixth (beaten 7.5 lengths) in the Run To The Rose first-up, but reports are that he has come on immensely in trackwork since that run. Has some strong profiles and is a huge price. A win wouldn’t shock.

4 Yes Yes Yes

Current Price: $6

5 Big Positives

Looks the clear horse to beat, and I’m surprised he isn’t favourite. Has a close to perfect Golden Rose winning profile, running second in the Run To The Rose first-up. Is trained by Waller and won a black type race as a two-year-old.

Trialled like a topliner (sitting back and charging home under no pressure for second to Dubious, who was hard ridden in a 895-metre trial (Canterbury, Febreuary 25th) in quick time) before winning the Pago Pago as a two-year-old. Then had no luck in the Golden Slipper after a terrible ride

His trial this prep was enormous. He got back and hit the line very strongly under restraint for a close second, in the quickest of ten 900 metre trials on the day. Impressed first up in the Run To The Rose running second, and Waller will have him primed here. Looks very hard to beat

NB: Trial Spy Members took $11-$12 in Futures Markets for YES YES YES last month

5 Exceedance

Current Price: $5.50

1 Big Positive, 1 Slight Negative

Doesn’t profile like a Golden Rose winner. Has a powerful finish and can reel off fast sectionals, but this is a high quality field and he maps to settle last and potentially have to go around them all. He’s short in the market for that task given his profile, although his third in the Run To The Rose looked good. Has ability but this is a big ask, and I prefer his profile for the Caulfield Guineas next start.

6 Kubrick

Current Price: $13

6 Big Positives

Profiles perfectly as a Golden Rose winner for Waller. Chris Waller had the quinella last year in this race with The Autumn Sun & Zousain, who had run the quinella in the JJ Atkins Group 1 in Brisbane as two-year-olds. Waller’s other winner of the Golden Rose, Zoustar, also ran a close second in the JJ Atkins. Kubrick ran a very close second in the JJ Atkins, at only his third start, off a non ideal lead-up (1000 metre debut and 1200 metres second-up). He fits the mould of the ideal Waller Golden Rose type. He was being prepared at the Gold Coast stable initially, as were Winx, Zoustar and Brazen Beau. He ran a solid fourth in the Run To The Rose first up, as did Zoustar before winning this race. Talented colt who looks a big threat here.

Dean’s Winners Members took $16 – $17 in futures mnarkets for KUBRICK last month

7 Dawn Passage

Current Price: $26

0 Positives, 1 Slight Negative

Could only manage fifth, beaten seven lengths in the Run To The Rose, and doesn’t have the profile to be winning here

8 Yao Dash

Current Price: $6

1 Slight Positive, 1 Slight Negative, 2 Big Negatives

Won 735m trial (Randwick, 12th July) by a head, beating Group 2 winner Time To Reign in the quickest time and final sectional of sixteen trials on the day. Ran second to Group 1 performer Athiri in Randwick trial (30th July), beaten 0.6 lengths after racing wide. Has been a Trial Spy horse and members have backed him in both his debut win at Canterbury, and his second-up win at Rosehill.

Did benefit from a leaders bias when winning at Rosehill defeating Funstar. He’s a Trial Spy identified horse who has plenty of talent, but I am very surprised at the price. Has a lot of historical negatives being a gelding and third-up in his first prep. I could have entertained at a big price, but he doesn’t deserve to be so short in the market and is unders currently.

Verdict

Yes Yes Yes: I believe this is the clear horse to beat. The most talented horse in the race, who has the perfect profile to win here and then go on to win the Coolmore down the Flemington straight in November

Kubrick: Amazing value, this horse should not be double figure odds. A talented colt who will be primed for this, and will give it a big shake, followed by the Caulfield Guineas where he will also be hard to beat

Castelvecchio: Has a powerful finish and can upset the favourites

Prince Fawaz: Is the forgotten horse, and is a crazy price. Will run much better than the current market price suggests

I believe Bivouac is a false favourite and big unders at 6/4 currently. Whilst Exceedance and Yao Dash are talented, they meet a hot field here, and I believe their profiles are against winning this event on Saturday.

It was another great week for Dean’s Winners, with $2,200 profit at 87% POT.

This follows on from the $2,000 profit at 154% POT the previous week.

We’ve now made $10,400 profit at 36% POT in just the past 4 months.

Even better, for this week only we have a special offer for those who take out a Dean’s Winners subscription:

Buy a monthly subscription: receive a free bonus week
Buy a quarterly subscription: receive a free bonus month
Buy an annual subscription: receive a free bonus quarter

Click here to take advantage.

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