Let’s Elope Stakes, Flemington
  • Speed map, rated market and runner comments from pro punter Cameron O’Brien
  • Cameron’s keen to bet, with his top selection currently big overs in the market.

The Group 2 Let’s Elope stakes over 1400m at Flemington is one of the main races on the card this week. It’s a good race both for horses set for it, and for others on the way through to bigger features throughout the Spring.

Speed map

I don’t think there’ll be a great deal of pace as there’s not really any natural leaders. Perhaps ZOUBO (13) may press on from the wide draw. Moderate pace only.

Rated market

I have some value in there. My top rater is AMBERDI (10), priced up as a $5.20 chance, and she is currently $16 in the real markets, obviously well worth a bet at those odds. The other one I will be looking to back based on current markets is MISS SISKA (8), resuming, who can win if she’s back near her best first up. I’m not as keen on the favourite MY PENDANT as the market is. I have her as a chance but around twice the price that she is in current markets.

Runner comments

Effectively fourth up off a short spell, AMBERDI (10) has been improving every run this time in. She won when not entitled to at Murray Bridge when wide throughout, going 103, then improved again to 106 last start at Morphettville when she was just beaten a nose. She can improve again here I think with a good map and getting Dean Yendall on… big value for mine!

MISS SISKA (8) is first-up. She got to a very high 112 peak last prep and that makes her a live chance in this. Her second-best figure is 107 though, so there’s a question mark over whether she can repeat that 112 this prep. However, she’s trialled up okay for this, she won at 1400m first-up last prep and has won her last two first-up runs. She can win here too.

FUNDAMENTALIST (6) has come back from a spell well, and is well placed here. Maps in a good spot, third-up and ready to improve. Right in this.

FIDELIA (9) strung four in a row together last prep and I don’t think we’ve seen her top. She closed it out well first-up over 1200 metres and is certainly a winning chance here second-up. Unbeaten in three runs at Flemington.

SPANISH WHISPER (2) ran well resuming, going 107, and can improve beyond that this prep. Maps well from the good draw and should get every chance.

MY PENDANT (7) won well at Flemington two starts back, going 105, then won again against the pace but only going 101 last time. It was effectively higher as it wasn’t run to suit that day. We haven’t seen her top yet, however the market has priced in a lot of potential although she has a lot of ability, I couldn’t come into their price.

SPANISH REEF (4) didn’t do much resuming and I would need to see her produce something before I could get keen. In her favour is that her best form is absolutely here at Flemington, between 1400 and 1600 metres, so she could bounce back quickly.

MUSIC BAY (3) had no luck resuming when she raced wide throughout at Caulfield. She was fancied that day too, however this is harder and she’s effectively worse off at the weights.

PRINCESS JENNI (1) is first-up. This mare held 108s in impressive fashion last prep and I don’t think we’ve seen her top yet. She’s likely heading for a 113 at some point if all goes to plan, however she’s likely being set for further than this so is probably not ready to do that yet today.

ALOISIA (5) is an enigmatic mare these days. Just had a warm-up run resuming over the 1200 metres at Caulfield, and she did peak second-up at 1400m last prep. She’s hard to catch though and hasn’t won for a while, and finds it hard to do so with how she maps.

BELLARIA (11) was okay last start at the Valley going 103. That’s close to her top of 104 but she needs more here.

ZOUBO (13) is a hard mare to mark. She has a best of 103 and again is another one who we probably haven’t seen her top of yet. She was OK resuming over the 1200m, closing it out okay. She just needs too big a jump here, though again she does have ability.

I’d never put it past Pat Carey to find a roughie winner in town (he does it often!), however I can’t get CAMELLE (12) there on figures. She has a best of 100, and though in all probability we haven’t seen her top in all yet, she’d need a big new peak here.

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