- Speed map, rated market and runner comments from pro punter Cameron O’Brien
- Cam’s on-top pick is available at a value price.
I’m previewing the Group 3 MRC Foundation Cup this week, over 2000 metres at Caulfield. At the time of writing the field of sixteen has been reduced by twelve to scratchings. A few of these are looking to races at longer trips than this, but I think I have found one who is perfectly suited.
A lot of backmarkers are engaged here. As I said a few of them want further and will be dropping back. I think WOLFE (14), SUPER TITUS (11) and SO YOU WIN (13) end up with very good runs on pace.
I have some value in there. My top rater is AMBERDI (10), priced up as a $5.20 chance, and she is currently $16 in the real markets, obviously well worth a bet at those odds. The other one I will be looking to back based on current markets is MISS SISKA (8), resuming, who can win if she’s back near her best first up. I’m not as keen on the favourite MY PENDANT as the market is. I have her as a chance but around twice the price that she is in current markets.
And as you can see I have SUPER TITUS (11) as a $3.40 favourite in the race. In the real market he is a solid $5.00, so he’s very backable. He won strongly same track 1700m last time after racing wide and I think he can improve further third-up off that and win again.
NEUFBOSC (2) as shown little in his two runs for Hayes so far. He has ability and his overseas figures were good, I’d need to see a sign though
GALLIC CHIEFTAIN (3) is a seven-year-old now who got moving late in his first-up run. He wants more than 2000m for his best, but should improve again
STEEL PRINCE (4) was unbeaten last prep and worked home well first-up over 1700 metres. His best is also over further than this so I’m expecting further improvement from this one.
SIKANDARABAD (5) is a seven-yar-old now who was good late at the Valley last start. He worked home solidly and unlike the horses above him the 2000 metres is his right trip. He peaked with a 110 third-up last prep. I have pushed him up close to that here but still have him longer than the market.
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VOLKSTOKNBARRELL (6) who had injury problems and is now with Danny O’Brien. He improved second-up, needs a lot more yet though.
BRIMHAM ROCKS (7) got moving late second-up at Randwick. He has good older figures… it’s hard to know if he still has them in him though.
ETYMOLOGY (9) put in a good run second-up last start and will be improved by it. However, his best is also over further than this. Some chance.
I need to see more than what LORD FANDANGO (10) did first-up to get enthused about pushing him near to his top yet.
SUPER TITUS (11) had a strong win second-up at Caulfield when he raced wide and found the line solidly. He has higher figures overseas figures too, maps a lot better this time and with natural improvement from that run, and appreciating the extra trip today, I have him clear top.
SO YOU WIN (13) is effectively third-up off a letup. He was very good closing it out at Kensington first-up then didn’t handle the heavy ground second-up. Forgiving that, he has a 110 just four runs back over 1800 metres and will appreciate the 2000 metres here. Can win.
WOLFE (14) is hard to mark! Wolfe has a lot of ability, he’s won five from seven, and won well two back on the Kensington. I am also forgiving his last start run on the heavy. Trying to work out his top is the tough bit, but he has upside yet and is fitter third up here, will appreciate the drier track and can win.
SUPERNOVA (15) closed it out well first-up over 1600 metres and has already shown proficiency over further. He might need this run for a little more fitness given he’s had a month off since the first up run but he did trial, and can win.