Regal Roller Stakes

The Spring is returning! Whenever we’re in August and I see races like this one – and programs like this one – come along with a lot of good horses resuming, I know that spring is not too far away again and the winter is beginning to wane. The Regal Roller is a Listed race over 1200 metres at Caulfield. It’s generally a good lead-in to the better races for some horses.

Speed map

Given the small field size most of them should get their chance, though GRANDE ROSSO (7) may end up wide.

Rated market

As you can see I have BEGOOD TOYA MOTHER (8) well clear on top and I think he’s close enough to a good thing. He’ll roll forward, he dominated a trial recently and dominated last prep, getting to a top of 115. He doesn’t need 115 to win this, he can come back 110 and probably win, and given how he trialled up I expect him to come back at least 110. Great bet for mine!

Runner comments

BEGOOD TOYA MOTHER (9) became a really solid horse last prep and in his last win rated an amazing 115 – in an 84 benchmark. That’s Group level. 1200 metres is a touch short of what he wants but he was brilliant in an easy jumpout win recently and all reports are he’s back well. With 54 kgs he’s thrown in at the weights and if he’s back anywhere near his top with that weight he wins.

BEHEMOTH (7) is a talented Adelaide visitor not over here just to make up the numbers. He’s a potential 112 horse, though with the way he maps (back) he always needs some luck. He closed it out well last time and up to the 1200 metres now suits. Like LONG LEAF (6) he’ll get to the outside and run on hard. His first look at Caulfield is a question mark for him though.

LONG LEAF (6) is a talented horse who I don’t think we’ve seen the best of yet. Ideally he wants a little more than 1200 metres for his best but the wide draw is OK in that respect and Oliver will wind him up down the middle. The camp may have other races in mind for him yet but I think he also has a potential 112 in him somewhere, and if he’s able to do that then he can certainly win a race like this first up.

HAUNTED (5) is an enigmatic runner. He got to a new peak of 110 in April this year, winning at this track and trip and went strongly to the line that day. He went off a bit in his next two runs then had a short spell before closing it out well enough in two runs in NSW. He’s probably being set for this back at the scene of that peak, and he maps ideally. If the April Haunted turns up he’s a very strong winning chance. In the care of James Cummings and with KMac on board he should be getting every chance to return to that.

First-up 140 days, ANTAH (8) went out to a spell well winning solidly at Bendigo, going 109, his top. This trip is a touch short of his top but he won first-up last prep and though he’s a seven-year-old he’s still reasonably lightly raced.

KENS DREAM (4) is second-up off a trial win. He was okay first-up, beaten only 2.5 lengths and rating within two lengths of his top there, so I think he’s back okay this prep. He loves the track and trip and though he may go back he has a very good rider on. He’s also gone well early in his preps in the past, so I’m expecting a strong performance.

FUNDAMENTALIST (1) is first-up off 126 days. She is a 110 horse at her top and she got to that last prep, running well in the Randwick Guineas over a mile. I suspect they will have later races in mind for her but she’s a four-year-old now and should be improved again this prep. Nice mare on the up, however with 59kgs I think she’s giving too much away at this trip.

GRANDE ROSSO (7) is and eight-year-old now and first-up off 212 days. His best is beginning to get behind him, and he wants 1400m rather than 1200m, but at his best he has the ability to get close. From the slightly wide draw with a few drawn inside him who race in similar spots, he may end up wide.

Finally, I’d need to see something from VASSILATOR (2) first. He showed ability as a two-year-old and ran well at 100/1 in the Caulfield Guineas, too, but didn’t come up in the Autumn. Hard to know how he’s going.

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