- Speed map, rated market and runner comments from pro punter Cameron O’Brien
- Cam thinks Gatting (his $101 winner from Flemington!) looks backable at current pricing
The football is over, and the real stuff kicks in now as the Spring Carnival begins to heat up! This Sunday sees the G1 Underwood over 1800 metres at Caulfield as the feature race.
I think the tempo should be good. TRAP FOR FOOLS (2) and GAILO CHOP (12) like to run along in front and all runners should get their chance from a pace perspective.
I have three very close together in HARTNELL (1), GATTING (7) and HOMESMAN (8), then a bit of a gap to YUCATAN (9). I think it falls away a bit, there’s a few who just can’t make the figure required at WFA.
HOMESMAN (8) is race favourite and though hard to beat won’t be backable for me. HARTNELL (1) may get to a backable quote but right now is very similar to my price, while my new favourite horse GATTING (7) is the one who looks backable, at least right now. He’s $5.50 fixed everywhere. I’ll wait to the day but I don’t see him trimming, and he’ll likely drift. Quite the difference from the $139 last start! YUCATAN (9) is technically an overlay but it’s a real guess what figure to give him.
HARTNELL (1) is racing well without luck so far this prep. Got home well late in both of his last two runs and the trip is no problem for him. He ust needs to get out from the inside draw.
Hard to know how GAILO CHOP (2) is going, as did little first-up off his long spell. Obviously could win at his best!
BLACK HEART BART (3) is a nine-year-oldnow and it looks like he’s not finding his old form.
It’s also been a while since HUMIDOR (4) went well. He’s done little so far this prep.
HARLEM (5) won the Australian Cup third-up last prep, but hasn’t done anything in these two lead-ins.
Horses nominated for @HylandSW Underwood Stakes, @KarakaChat Caulfield WFA Championship, @ladbrokescomau Caulfield Guineas Prelude, @SchweppesAus Thousand Guineas Prelude & the @alfa_romeo Testa Rossa Stakes hit Caulfield course proper for gallops. Watch: https://t.co/63RXMFFoBP pic.twitter.com/Rnoz43Zlpo
— Melbourne Racing Club (@MelbRacingClub) September 24, 2019
TRAP FOR FOOLS (6) has been just average in his two runs back, however he was good at this trip earlier in the year and on his best would be a chance. He should get to roll along in front.
GATTING (7) won the Makybe Diva at 100/1 (you beauty!!) aided by the perfect ride from Kah. He should again get the perfect run and there’s no reason to suggest he can’t repeat his figure.
HOMESMAN (8) won this race last year and is arguably going better now. He’s drawn wide but I map him getting in. He looks hard to beat and is ultra-impressive at the Valley.
YUCATAN (9) is very hard to give a mark to! The Yucatan who bolted in the Herbert Power last Spring would be favourite in this, but we haven’t seen him since and the first-up version this prep was poor.
YULONG PRINCE (10) just needs too much on what he’s shown here so far.
SUPER TITUS (11) was a bit unlucky after a strong win the start before, but this is much harder.
THE CHOSEN ONE (12) was okay resuming, but he is another one not well treated under WFA conditions here.
KENEDNA (13) is the only mare in the race and she has some good figures on her day, however she probably needs better than she’s ever done, and always needs luck with how she maps.
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