Group 1 Australasian Oaks preview

SA racing analyst Nadia Horne brings you her Group 1 Australasian Oaks preview ahead of Saturday’s meeting at Morphettville.

Speed

Appears to be a genuinely run Oaks, with pace drawn right across the grid. Over half the field have the potential to settle handy. Should be a true staying test.

The Field

#1 Aristia (Ellerton & Zahra / Dwayne Dunn), Barrier 6

VRC Oaks winner who was trapped deep without cover in the ATC Oaks when there to the 150m. Gets gear changes, the strong tempo suits, and has recorded the required performance ratings to win. The question is can she improve from one of her worst career performances?

#2 Qafila (Hayes & Dabernig / Jamie Kah), Barrier 17

Ran to a career peak first-up at Caulfield 23/2 and needs to run to a new career peak to win this. Comes off one of the fastest trial performances of the Tatura season 17/4 and does have a good distance profile, but needs to lift.

#3 Princess Jenni (David Brideoake / Damien Oliver), Barrier 3

Favourite off my ratings in this, following a career peak performance when made ground 20/4 Caulfield, clocking last 600m +7.6L above class average. Strong tempo suits and Oliver sticks.

4 Mirette (Archie Alexander / Declan Bates), Barrier 8

Last start winner who would need to record a career peak to win. Recorded strong closing sectionals off a slow -12.6L lead speed 13/4, but gets into a totally different race shape here.

#5 House Of Cartier (John Sargent / Michael Walker), Barrier 13

Former NZ filly who has improved with each Australian run. Went from a maiden win in NZ to be a runner-up at G2 level at her next run. Has ability but happy to risk.

#6 Maracaibo (Busuttin & Young / Stephen Baster), Barrier 10

Comes off a fair run in the ATC Oaks, will stay and will settle on speed. Wouldn’t expect any improvement at this stage of prep, and needs to improve off peak rating to win.

#7 Amangiri (Team Hawkes / Todd Pannell), Barrier 2

Genuine winning chance who ran to a career peak performance 20/3 Hawkesbury off a fast lead speed. Held-up for the majority of the straight in the Packer Plate 20/4 and forced to do early work when narrowly beaten in the Adrian Knox. Can win.

#8 Sure Knee (Chris Waller / John Allen), Barrier 16

Narrowly defeated by the pre-post fav at Caulfield 20/4 when made ground from back in the field. Showed a tendency to run in at first way of Melbourne going. Query is running out the trip strongly, but if she can she is a huge price on her last start performance.

#9 Zalatte (Chris Waller / Luke Currie), Barrier 4

Racing without luck this campaign and been well in the market at each run. Suited by the strong speed and has the potential to improve rapidly with luck in running. Interesting point is Ollie has elected to stick with Princess Jenni.

#10 Sizzleme (Cindy Alderson / Jamie Mott), Barrier 14

Appeared to have every chance 13/4 in SA lead-up when ran to an equal career peak. Needs to lift.

#11 Nordic Symphony (Symon Wilde / Beau Mertens), Barrier 9

Came off a solid +3.3L lead tempo and ran last 600m +6.2L above class average. The impressive part about the win was the strong last 200m recorded. Clearly recorded a new career peak and needs to find again, but has the potential to improve.

#12 Zargos (Hayes & Dabernig / Harry Coffey), Barrier 20

Gets the addition of winkers but needs to find a few lengths.

#13 Arctic Shock (Chris Meagher / Jason Holder), Barrier 15

Blinkers go on and made ground off a slow lead speed 13/4. Needs to run to a new career peak.

#14 Dreamed (Ryan Balfour / William Pike), Barrier 11

Doing it all off one campaign and has improved at each run. Has come off slow lead speeds at each run. Recorded huge closing sectionals 13/4. Has scope to improve further.

#15 Collectable (Robbie Griffiths / Craig Williams), Barrier 18

Tightened for room and still made ground in the strong lead-up race Caulfield 20/4. Will be forced to cover ground from wide draw but is fitter for two runs and is still on the improve. Williams sticks.

#16 Seewhatshebrings (Hayes & Dabernig / Ben Allen), Barrier 12

Covered ground and stuck on 13/4 in SA lead-up. They walked through the first 600m and sprinted home. Needs to improve.

Emergencies

#17 So We Are (Phillip Stokes / Caitlin Jones), Barrier 5

Needs to improve.

#18 Prism (Hayes & Dabernig / Michael Dee), Barrier 19

Winner in weaker company 22/4, must find too much.

#19 Havana Heat (Will Clarken / TBC), Barrier 1

Backs up from last week. Hasn’t been able to recapture maiden win rating 6/11, Happy to risk.

#20 Miss Five Hundred (Peter Gelagotis / Jason Maskiell), Barrier 7

Not good enough.

Verdict

Predicted finish: 3, 8, 7, 9, 1, 14, 15

Princess Jenni (3) is the most likely winner following her impressive victory at Caulfield. She has the best recent form heading into the race and is suited by the genuine tempo. The early markets have her rated up to her best and then some, so happy to wait closer to the event to bet. Sure Knee (8) came with Princess Jenni at Caulfield and was outgunned, should there be as much between them in the market for a narrow defeat? Amangiri (7) comes through Sydney form lines and has been luckless. Then out to Zalatte (9), Aristia (1), Dreamed (14) and Collectable (15). There is some value in the prices of the latter two.

 

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