form analyst, autumn racing carnival, queen elizabeth stakes

The Queen Elizabeth Stakes is a 2000m Group 1 weight-for-age race held at Randwick Racecourse and is the crowning event of the Sydney autumn carnival.

Racing NSW’s “The Championships”. started in the early-2010s, and Racing NSW needed a big feature race as the signature event. The Queen Elizabeth Stakes got the nod and prizemoney was increased from $500,000 to $4 million in 2014.

But even before this the Queen Elizabeth Stakes boasted an amazing history, with winners such as Phar Lap, Tulloch and Might And Power.

The recent history of the race is dominated by super mare Winx, who won the race in 2017, 2018 and 2019.

Queen Elizabeth Stakes: Key runners

Track We’re a few days out but with all the rain Sydney is getting, it will be a genuine Heavy 10. That’s how I am playing it this far out..

Speed Expecting the tempo to be above average here. There’s speed from Dalasan, Zaaki, Mount Popa and Think it Over.

Runner-by-runner

Prices courtesy of TopSport at time of publication.

Verry Elleegant‘s [$3.10] last four runs fourth-up have been two Group 1 victories (the Tancred and the Caulfield Cup) and two Group 1 placings (the Queen Elizabeth and the Cox Plate), all with ratings good enough to win this. We’ve got a proven horse, a proven jockey and a grand final trainer. There’s a slight concern from last start, but she dipped third-up last prep as well… and won a Melbourne Cup a month later.

Anamoe [$5] has not been at his peak this prep, but a seven-length win off a slow tempo may have stopped him having that peak rating last start. He’s been handling the wet conditions and has a peak figure to trouble Verry Elleegant. I think Cummings has been building towards this one. It’s the up-and-coming colt versus the superstar mare!

Zaaki [$5] would be one of the ones to beat if it was dry, but he’ll need to be able to handle wet ground on Saturday.

Duais [$5.50] seems to find it difficult on the very wet ground, and I’m against her. Her last three runs on officially heavy ground have been 6th, 8th and 5th. She’s a different horse this prep but will need conditions to suit to beat the top two.

Montefilia [$7.50] upset Verry Elleegant last start, but Verry Elleegant rated down. Verry Elleegant and Anamoe would need to be off for Montefilia to beat them and cause another upset.

I’m Thunderstruck [$14] ran a strong second in the Doncaster and is on the quick back-up, rock hard fit. I have him priced shorter than the current market, but he’d need to peak again to beat Verry Elleegant and Anamoe.

Think It Over [$41] is yet to convince me that he can handle the really heavy conditions, or at least produce a peak figure good enough to win this in the wet.

Dalasan [$101] and Mount Popa [$101] won’t factor at this level.

Verdict

I am going to be against Duais and (it pains me to say) Zaaki in the very wet conditions… but a win by either wouldn’t surprise me as they are class horses!

Of the chances, that leaves me with Verry Elleegant and Anamoe… and I’m Thunderstruck at some value. I’ll play the overlays:

  • Anamoe is a bet
  • I’m Thunderstruck is also a bet, and I’m happy to play each way.
  • I’ll back Verry Elleegant as well IF it drifts in the market – I want $3.70+.

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