form analyst, autumn racing carnival, queen elizabeth stakes

The Queen Elizabeth Stakes is a 2,000m Group 1 weight-for-age race held at Randwick Racecourse and is the crowning event of the Sydney autumn carnival.

Racing NSW’s “The Championships”. started in the early-2010s, and Racing NSW needed a big feature race as the signature event. The Queen Elizabeth Stakes got the nod and prizemoney was increased from $500,000 to $4 million in 2014.

But even before this the Queen Elizabeth Stakes boasted an amazing history, with winners such as Phar Lap, Tulloch and Might And Power. The recent history of the race is dominated by super mare Winx, who won the race in 2017, 2018 and 2019.

Queen Elizabeth Stakes: Key runners

Professional punter Cameron O’Brien runs the Key Race Insights service for Champion Bets. The below is just some of Cameron’s runner comments for this race. Key Race Insights members receive Cameron’s full report for every Group 1 and $1 million race in Australia. This is for those who want to win on the big races, and includes his historical race profile, speed map, full rated market and recommended bets. And it’s less than $5 per race! Check out Key Race Insights here.

VERRY ELLEEGANT is going for three wins in a row. She did what she had to in the Chipping Norton two back, then proved too strong for ADDEYBB last start in the Ranvet. That race didn’t rate very highly but she is very likely set to peak in this one (especially with the prizemoney on offer) and she loves the Randwick 2000m. The downside for her is that the track is probably going to be a little drier than she would like. She has won on dry too, it’s just that her figures are generally better when it’s a genuine wet track. Still, she’s the one to beat again for me.

ADDEYBB is going for back to back Queen Elizabeths here.. He was game in defeat to Verry Elleegant in the Ranvet, however the race didn’t rate all that highly. That being said, he’ll be set to peak in this, not that. His downside here is the state of the track. His best form in Europe is with the cut out of the ground… and not just a little, but a lot. He got two very wet tracks last year here for his two wins, and last week in the Ranvet was wet as well. He is now a seven-year-old and faces a drier track here. His upsides: he gets his own lead, he obviously likes the Randwick 2000m, he is tough as old boots and he has Tommy Marquand who rides him very well.

SIR DRAGONET was back in form last winning the Tancred, and he beat them pretty well there. However, he rated about 2.5L lower there than he did in his explosive Cox Plate win of 2020, which was on a much softer track – something he demonstrably prefers. However, he is in form and there’s no reason to think he can’t go better than his win last start, and that was on a dry track after all. He’ll very likely need a bigger figure than his 114 last start… but his 119 Cox Plate does make him a genuine chance, if he can reproduce it on this drier track.

MUGATOO is the darling of the market place – always well backed. I argued that he was far too short in the Doncaster last week and I was right. He ran up to his top but couldn’t find more, ultimately. That being said he was only third-up there and should be fitter. And backing up he should be ready to show whatever his absolute top might be. The trip is no problem at all and Bowman should get him his chance here.

THINK IT OVER found his absolute top last start, winning the George Ryder courtesy of a pretty good ride. The small field here means he’ll likely get his chance again, and he did rate pretty well there, so he does have a chance here. The query on him is whether he can hold it, especially back onto a drier track. The interesting thing is his slow track form prior to last start was no good… he looked a dry tracker! So, that leans towards him being able to hold here. He can win if he does.

If you love betting in the big races (and who doesn't?) then Cameron O'Brien's Key Race Insights membership is for you.

Members receive full coverage from a pro punter for every Group 1 and $1m race around the country.

Your Key Race Insights report for each race includes recent race history and trends, speed maps, a full set of rated prices, key runner comments and suggested bets with stakes - all sent on Friday to allow you bet early or monitor the markets until race time.

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