horse racing tips july 18, race replays

How long do you spend on race replays?

Many casual punters spend ten times longer looking at a race beforehand (ie, doing the form) than they do after the fact (reviewing race replays).

Rather than the 10:1 (or higher) ratio of pre-race to post-race analysis employed by most punters, try to get into the habit of a 1:1 ratio instead.

If you spend 10 minutes doing the form and analysing the winning chances before the race, spend the same amount of time after the race looking at which horses ran well, and why.

You’d be surprised how much you’ll learn. It’s also a great opportunity to (win or lose) wipe the slate clean and move on to the next meeting. Many professionals will watch race replays from each horse’s perspective and focus on just one runner each time. So a 16 horse field means they watch the replay 16 times to make specific notes on each runner. For them, detailed post-race analysis is a key factor in achieving our goal of long term punting profits.

So what should you look for when going over the race replays?

1. Beware of barnstorming finishes!

Many people blackbook horses that are storming home at the end of the race. But blindly following these types of horses at their next start tends to be unprofitable, for multiple reasons.

Firstly, if everyone blackbooks the same style of horse, they are likely to be at fairly short odds when they next run.

Secondly, this strong finish may just be their natural racing pattern. Some horses have a tendency to drop out early and are saved for one late sprint that hopefully is good enough to finish over the top. So a run that might appear quite impressive at first glance is actually just a standard performance.

Thirdly, it’s also possible that the late finishing burst was assisted by a fast early pace that set up the race for the swoopers. Many of these seemingly impressive fast-finishers always find one or two better on the day, yet spend their entire career in everyone’s blackbook.

So if ‘barnstormers’ are unlikely to provide you with many profits, what else should you look for when doing your video analysis?

2. Find horses that suffer interference

Video analysis of interference can be done in conjunction with stewards reports. Use these reports to identify the horses that were adversely affected, then use the video to see just how much influence this had on their finishing position. A check might cost a horse a length, or it might ruin any winning chance the horse had. It is very difficult for a horse to regain momentum if they are knocked off balance. One caveat though is that a number of unlucky horses tend to be overbet next start. So many punters have identified these runners… remember, it’s all about value.

3. Look for on-pace runners who show some fight

Leaders who show fight and a will to win are typically a far better future punting proposition than the barnstormers mentioned earlier. Look for a horse that is attacked for the lead throughout the race and forced to set a cracking pace. But then, it fights on strongly while the other on-pacers capitulate. That’s a far more impressive effort than a horse that sits back off a strong pace and then finishes well.

4. Which horses will be fitter for the run?

You might focus on horses that are early in their preparation or have had a substantial break between runs. Just like human athletes, horses can only perform at their best when they’re close to peak fitness.

5. Forgive horses that were ridden “upside down”

It is very rare that a horse can be ridden against its normal pattern and perform well. For example, if you have an on-pace type that is forced to get back from a wide barrier, it is very unlikely to run well. It won’t have the ability to produce fast closing sectionals like backmarkers can. The opposite of this is when a backmarker races right up on the speed. This seldom works and by watching videos and understanding a horse’s traditional racing pattern, you can highlight forgive runs.

6. Watch for horses that are able to defy track bias

At the end of a meeting where there is a noted bias towards either swoopers or on-pace runners, it’s worth noting horses who defied the day’s dominant racing pattern.

Watching race replays so many other aspects of betting. If you’re prepared to put in the time, there’s no doubt that analysis of race replays can improve your punting success.

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