- Average SP market percentage on Australian racing was 119.2% over the past two weeks
- The challenge to find value continues for punters
In a further illustration of decreasing value in racing markets, data from the past two weeks on Australian races – across all states – shows an average market percentage of 119.2%.
The figures, supplied by Dynamic Odds, illustrate the uphill battle that bookmakers and punters face in trying to make a viable return from racing.
The data is taken from starting price markets (those offered at the very close of betting), when market percentages are typically at their very lowest. Average starting price markets of 120% across the country appear an imminent reality for racing punters and bookmakers, as a wagering environment of increased fees and taxes takes hold.
As a comparison to sports betting, applying the 119.2% market percentage to a two-way line market would result in dividends of $1.68 for each side.
AFL line markets for this week’s matches at the seven bookmakers – Bet365, BetEasy, Sportsbet, TAB, Ladbrokes, Unibet and TopSport – are set at either $1.90 or $1.91, more than a day out from matches. This equates to a market percentage of 104.7% or 105.3%.
While there are many basic factors that differentiate racing and sports markets – chiefly the number of possible outcomes, which means the two will never be totally comparable – it does illustrate the overall hurdle that racing punters need to overcome before they make money.
PoC is a tax on the punter. This means they will run out of petrol ( money) earlier than expected. Glitter today Gloom tomorrow! That’s ok. It won’t be my fault then ! There’s no easy solution. https://t.co/bRYUUW8KS2
— James Mathers (@JamesIMathers) July 17, 2019
Figures from the same period last year show an average market percentage of 117.9%, equating to two-way odds of $1.70.
The increase in market percentages has undoubtedly been forced on bookmakers by a combination of cost factors, recently outlined by Tristan Merlehan of TopSport on the Betting 360 podcast.
Saturday markets are slightly better value, at an average percentage of 118.8%, while analysis by state shows relatively little difference between Victoria, New South Wales, Queensland, South Australia and Western Australia. Market percentages are higher in the smaller racing jurisdictions – ACT, Tasmania and the Northern Territory.
Click here for a full rundown of all the figures.
Punt like a pro with Trevor Lawson’s Melbourne Ratings.
Get a full set of rated prices, speed maps, suggested bets with staking and live updates throughout the day from Trev himself.
It’s the only way to punt.