railway stakes

Group 1 racing kicks off in Perth this week with $1 million Railway Stakes. Champion Bets pro punter Cameron O’Brien – the man behind our Key Bets and Key Race Insights services – has put together his thoughts on this year’s race below.

The top of the market with TopSport currently looks like this (prices at Friday morning):

$3.50 Inspirational Girl
$4.60 Too Close The Sun
$5.50 Kay Cee
$9 Red Can Man

Railway Stakes: recent history

The Railway is the biggest race on the Perth racing calendar, and there’s some nice figures in there to back it up. Four years ago Scales Of Justice rated 114 to win, off the back of wins in restricted grade going 105 then in the G3 RJ Peters going 111. He then ran second in the Kingston Town and has since won multiple times at Group level, including a dominant win in the G1 Memsie at Caulfield last year going 117. Great Shot, who is here again this year, won in 2017 rating 113, coming off a second in the Lee Steere going 108. He failed in this race in 2018 and didn’t contest it last year – he hasn’t won since his 2017 Railway. In 2018 Galaxy Star was much too good with a rating of 114, coming off a 111 at Group 3 level the start before. He’s won three times since at Group level. And last year Regal Power won with 111. He came into the race second-up off a second in the Asian Beau going 108, and then won the All Star Mile going 113 in the autumn of this year. Good horses!

Railway Stakes: the chances

Typically this is a good race, the Railway, no real standouts this year. I loved the way Kay Cee and Iinspirational Girl found the line in their respective wins last start, and they are going to be awfully hard to beat here. But there are several other chances too. Too Close the Sun is at the top of his game, he flew last start (although on the wet), but he’s good on dry too. Good race this!

Map-wise, the pace is good here. Great Shot (Barrier 3) should kick up and Too Close The Sun (Barrier 16) should come over, and others like Gailo Chop (Barrier 20) are drawn terribly and might lead too. It should be truly run and the run-ons should get their chance.

I have them in this order:

Kay Cee

Very promising mare who treated them with disdain in the Lee Steere, and that wasn’t her top. Drawn a little wide but will get a trail and will love the trip. The one to beat and I really hope to be on.

Inspirational Girl

Strong win the last couple when she’s savaged the line. I think the mile is what she’s looking for now and she’ll be hard to beat.

Too Close The Sun

Bolted in last start and though it was on his more favoured wet tracks, he’s quite adept on the dry too. Drawn wide but can get outside the lead. In career-best form.

Red Can Man

Trying very hard this prep but keeps finding one better. In fact, all three winners of the races he’s been close in this prep are here.

Gailo Chop

He’s a ten-year old now! Still showed some form with a solid fourth in the Underwood this prep. Drawn badly here, which is an issue.

Uni Time

Always threatened to do something and is back well this prep. Drawn badly here, which is an issue.

Great Shot

Won this race back in 2017, but hasn’t won since. Can get a good run here, but is eight years old here.

Dance Music

Back to her top last start at Northam and a very genuine mare. But has a bit of a task from the gate here.

Platoon

Has come back okay this prep, but will need to find some older form to be a genuine winning chance here.

Truly Great

Keeps winning – can’t knock that and he found the line well last start. The gate is an issue but he’s in form.

Saturday best bets and suggested quaddies from our pro punters

Pro-punter Cameron O'Brien knows how to find value winners at big prices. He's done it time and time again for his Key Bets members. They get all of Cameron's tips from right across Australia, including stake, recommended price and runner comments.

Hindsight bias: don’t be a hindsight hero


Hindsight bias: why it’s a tremendous threat to your betting performance. Cognitive biases Previously we had a look at confirmation…Read More

Backing multiple horses in one race: why?


Backing multiple horses in a race is a concept a lot of punters struggle with. If you think a certain…Read More

Framing A Market: The Basis of Value Betting


Simple guide to framing a market and producing rated prices that allow you to bet to value What do the…Read More