You don’t need to be a pro punter to know the most likely outcome when Winx or Hartnell take to the track tomorrow, so our NSW analyst Nathan Snow has turned his attention to the Shorts for this week’s race preview.
Randwick Race 7: Bowermans Office Furniture Shorts (1100 metres)
Group 2, set weights plus penalties, three-year-olds and up
The lay of the land
The rail will be true tomorrow and we’ll be looking at a dead track – it’s about a dead 5 at the moment, with some light showers today, and then it’ll clear up for tomorrow.
With the rail in the true position, expect them to move toward the centre of the track in search of better ground, which will suit those sitting off the speed coming down the outside, or those on pace and drawn wide in the slower races.
The speed story
Ball of Muscle is the fastest horse in the race, and he’s out of barrier 1, so expect him to look to hold the inside and lead. He’ll be joined by Smart Volatility coming across from a wider gate, and look for Takedown to also get forward. Dothraki and Japonisme (gates 4 and 5 respectively) should get a good run just in behind them.
In the mix
English (Waterhouse & Bott / Berry) is the favourite here and it’s easy to see why – she’s a classy mare and it looks like she’ll get a good run. She’ll go back, so as long as they fan out into the straight, she’ll easily get across to the better ground and has a great turn of foot to take advantage of that.
Kaepernick (Hawkes / Reith) is another one I have a lot of time for. He’s somewhat unproven, but I think there’s a stack of talent there. He’s been to Brisbane and Melbourne and disappointed, but every time I’ve seen him in NSW he’s done things that only very good horses can do. I do expect him to measure up at the top level. Gate 2 is the worry as he could get buried away in the worst part of the track and will be somewhat dictated to.
Dothraki (Snowden / Shinn), should run well first-up as he has done at his last two preps and gets a perfect run. I also give Japonisme (Waller / Bowman) a good hope – this is a really classy horse when he’s right, and his run first-up was just too bad to be true on a sticky track, and can be forgiven. Sarajevo (O’Shea / McDonald) probably isn’t a bad roughie, can run home well and looks to be drawn to suit.
Ball of Muscle (Pride / McEvoy) is coming off a disappointing prep and is drawn poorly, whilst Takedown (Moore / Clark) is honest but is better suited over longer. Clearly Innocent (Bennett / Avdulla) is interesting. He raced his way through the grades last prep and could well measure up, but his recent trial left me wondering a little.
Put a line through…
Class-wise, it’s hard to give Smart Volatility (Sargent / Angland) or Boss Lane (Quinton / O’Hara) much hope in this sort of company. Howmuchdoyouloveme (Karakatsanis / Williams) hasn’t run since January, is returning without a trial, and isn’t up to them.
It’s hard to go past English here. She’s definitely good enough, and provided the speed is there she’ll get a good run. Price-wise I think they have her about right in early markets.
If he’s right, I think Japonisme could give it a shake too, and Dothraki fits in well.
I have a lot of time for Kaepernick and think he’s very talented – I think we’re getting the right price tomorrow to see if he can step up.
Our NSW Ratings service give you access to all of Snowy’s assessed prices, speed map comments and recommended bets, as well as a direct line to the man himself during meetings via our live page.