- Trevor has Begood Toya Mother equal favourite, but the value lies elsewhere
- Speed map, full field and summary of the favourites’ chances
Begood Toya Mother will cross Age Of Chilvalry and lead, with Streets Of Avalon handy. Despatch (with the blinkers on) will be forward. So Si Bon and Amphtrite should be midfield, along with Iconoclasm. Best Of Days is wide with a trail, or may go back. Deprive is caught in no man’s land and probably has to go back.
There’s good speed in the race and it should be genuinely run.
Begood Toya Mother is a hot favourite here. It opened at around $3.50 and I actually thought it’d drift immediately and maybe get out to around $5 fairly quickly. Instead it’s gone the other way, so clearly somebody likes it.
Personally I’ve got the top three in the race – Begood Toya Mother along with So Si Bon and Amphitrite – fairly even in my market and certainly don’t have Begood Toya Mother as short as the bookies.
Begood Toya Mother is third-up here and is certainly ready to go to its best. It’ll cross Age Of Chivalry and lead from barrier three. Last start broke his string on wins – he had to work from the outside barrier and couldn’t absorb the pressure. I’ve rated him higher than that to its best for this race, but I still think there’ll be a fair bit of pressure on him here and even with the high rating, I can’t have him near the market price at the moment.
Dan Bowman believes Begood Toya Mother doesn’t necessarily have to lead in the Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes on Saturday 🐎👇 pic.twitter.com/HD0eOisvUy
— RSN927am (@RSN927) September 17, 2019
So Si Bon
So Si Bon is simply a new horse since being gelded last autumn. He had a terrific win first-up down the straight at Flemington in the Aurie’s Star, running very good sectionals. Following that he was second behind Scales Of Justice at Group 1 weight-for-age level in the Memsie Stakes, getting home very hard. And he gets a drop in weight here. He’s coming off a peak figure in the Memsie, but I think he can reproduce that here and repeat it, or go better.
Amphitrite won her first four last spring as a three-year-old filly, including the Group 2 Edward Manifold and the Group 1 Thousand Guineas, in a stunning campaign. Her autumn prep started well, winning the Group 3 Vanity and running third in the Australian Guineas, before it tailed off a little.
She’d only had a short break leading into the autumn, though she still ran well. She’s been given more time for this campaign. Importantly, she should have furnished as a four-year-old mare and thus there’s some natural improvement there. She charged home from last first-up at Caulfield, running into sixth, and the signs are there that she can run to a new level here. I’ve rated her to a new a career peak for this – she’s a four-year-old mare now and she should have improved a fair bit naturally.
Overall, I think the three of them are fairly hard to split. So at current prices, while I can’t have Begood Toya Mother, I’m keen on So Si Bon and Amphitrite… both look like good bets at current prices.