Some wet track stats

Warwick Farm is set to be a Heavy 10 tomorrow and with so many wet tracks around Australia in recent times, it’s worthwhile taking a closer look at some punting pointers for rain-affected going. Today I wanted to focus on topweights because some people have a theory that the heavier the track, the greater effect weight has on a horse. So do the stats confirm this? Here are the punting results for the last 5 years for the highest handicapped horse in each race across all track conditions: Good = 6% loss on turnover Dead = 9% LOT Slow = 13% LOT Heavy = 10% LOT So overall on slow and heavy tracks, topweights underperformed by 4% (12% loss on turnover compared to 8% on firmer tracks). Looking at the records by distances, it’s interesting to note that weight carried on wet tracks seemed to have a greater effect over shorter distances.  Topweights racing under 1600m on slow and heavy lost 13% on turnover, while those at a mile or more lost only 9%. To explain that result you could argue that the high intensity sprint races exacerbate the effect of weight throughout the entire race, whereas the slower pace of middle distance races means the full effect of the weight is probably only felt for the last 600m or so. Another interesting finding was that horses whose last start was on a dry track struggled to adapt to a wet surface, losing 15% on turnover. That compared to 9% LOT for horses coming off a dead, slow or heavy track run. Other points to note: (1) Apprentice jockeys claiming at least 2kg’s was a positive (about 4% improvement) (2) Barriers 1-6 lost 14% on turnover while barriers 7+ performed much better. (3) Some race fitness is important as 1st uppers lost 16% on turnover It’s always important to have ‘done your homework’ when punting but even moreso when the track is wet.  We’ll expand on this topic in coming weeks.