Before we begin, remember that pre-post futures betting is fraught with danger, as you are not refunded if your horse does not run in the race. It is not known for certain yet whether these horses will target the Blue Diamond, Golden Slipper, both races or neither, hence any bets you place are somewhat on speculation.
Futures markets are at high percentages so only runners of significant value should be considered.
Snitzel colt from the General Nediym stakes-winning mare Isurava. This flashy colt with a white blaze is trained by Gerald Ryan.
Toyed with Invader (Beat Chauffeur in trial, 2nd to From Within and 5th in the Magic Millions), sitting outside and jog-trotting next to it to win Rosehill 900m trial (Dec 20), 4.9 lengths above par and third quickest of nine trials on the day.
Then won Rosehill 900m trial (Dec 30) by 3.8 lengths. Was slow away but took a trail and bolted in at Randwick 1100m debut Jan 14. Looks to have real upside and is a live Golden Slipper chance.
Menari has an ‘AAA’ grade pedigree rating (G1 inherited racing ability).
Golden Slipper: $15-$21 in current markets is value.
Street Cry colt and is the first foal of Redoute’s Choice mare Outdoor. This colt is trained by John O’Shea.
Won Rosehill 900m trial (Nov 22) by 2.5 lengths in solid style and good time despite sitting three wide without cover, 6 lengths above par in third quickest time of eleven trials on the day. Ran 1.7 lengths quicker time than She Will Reign did on the same day, with a 3 length quicker closing sectional.
Settled midfield and ran home well to win over Rosehill 1100m (Dec 3), beating Goodfella who ran second in a Group 3 and then 4th in the Magic Millions, so that form is starting to look solid. Could be more a Sires / Champagne type on breeding, but looks to have some brilliance.
Trekking has an ‘A’ grade pedigree rating (stakes class inherited racing ability).
Golden Slipper: $15 – $17 currently possibly worth a small nibble, looks a nice 2yo.
Snitzel colt out of Magic Millions winner Mirror Mirror, who was a $1.6m purchase from the Gold Coast Magic Millions Yearling Sale. The colt is trained by Gerald Ryan.
This colt just keeps improving with every trial and race. Ran 2nd to Invader in the first 2yo trials of the season at Randwick 850m (Sep 19) when on pace, solid in a slowish trial but with good closing sectionals.
Huge run charging home for 2nd in the Magic Millions. Looks to my eye more of a Sires Produce / Champagne Stakes type of horse, and will take a stack of beating in those events after the Slipper.
Chauffeur has a ‘B’ grade pedigree rating (metropolitan class inherited racing ability).
Golden Slipper: $11 – $13 currently isn’t value, will likely get better on the day, more suited to Sires/Champagne.
I Am Invincible filly from the Reset mare Set to Unleash. She was a $105k purchase from the Gold Coast Magic Millions Yearling Sale. She is trained by Toby Edmonds.
Won very quick Dec 13 1000m Gold Coast trial in time 13.5 lengths above par, and quickest of twelve trials on the day, and then has bolted in both career race starts.
Has had three starts for three wins, bolting in twice in Saturday metro grade, and then winning the Magic Millions from Gate 16 showing amazing early speed to lead.
No shortage of ability but the Golden Slipper is a different kettle of fish, leading all the way is very difficult in that event and is peaking again after the Magic Millions gut-buster.
Impressive filly but I’ll be looking elsewhere for the Slipper.
Houtzen has an ‘AAA’ grade pedigree rating (G1 inherited racing ability).
Golden Slipper: $6 – $7 currently certainly isn’t value this far out, will likely get better on the day.
Exceed and Excel colt from the Daylami mare Mandawara. He was a $260k purchase from the Gold Coast Magic Millions Yearling Sale. The colt is trained by the Snowdens.
A bit slow away, got into trail, pushed through tight gap to win in slowish time in the first 2yo trials of the season at Randwick (850m Sep 19).
Impressed winning the Breeders Plate at Randwick Oct 1, a race that has produced many Slipper winners recently including Pierro, Vancouver and Capitalist. Seems more in the Pierro mould to me, less brilliant than Vancouver and Capitalist, and could be a force in the Sires / Champagne.
Khan has a ‘B’ grade pedigree rating (metropolitan class inherited racing ability).
Golden Slipper: $11 – $13 currently isn’t value, worth seeing again in lead-up races.
Pierro filly from the Rock of Gibraltar mare Musidora. Musidora has already produced a G3 winning daughter in Sacred Eye over the distance of 2000m. Tulip is trained by Hayes/Dabernig.
Won Tatura Dec 13 trial by 0.5L in second quickest time of fourteen trials on the day.
Impressive debut winner at Moonee Valley coming from the tail to swamp them. A live Blue Diamond candidate.
Tulip has a ‘B’ grade pedigree rating (metropolitan class inherited racing ability).
Golden Slipper: $13 – $26 currently isn’t huge value, worth seeing again.
Blue Diamond: $10 – $11 current markets.
Not a Single Doubt colt from the More Than Ready mare Gosetgo. The colt was a $190k purchase from the Gold Coast Magic Millions Yearling Sale. This colt is trained by Gerald Ryan.
Was the pick of the triallers from the first set of 2yo trials at Randwick. Jumped solidly, pushed to lead and just kept going further away from them. Overall and last sectional both clear quickest of the day, looking very speedy.
Led in the Breeders facing a strong breeze and ran second to Khan. Can keep improving and should prove a good sprinter.
Condor Heroes has an ‘A’ grade pedigree rating (stakes class inherited racing ability).
Golden Slipper: $21 – $26 currently possibly worth a small nibble, but does need to prove itself.
Exceed And Excel filly from the Viscount mare Montmelo. The filly is trained by John O’Shea.
Looked good winning Randwick 850m (Sep 19) trial by 2L in good style and solid time.
Won the Gimcrack by 0.8L.
Small thing that sweats up and doesn’t look impressive in the yard but gets the job done.
Will be interesting to see how she has developed when she comes back.
Jorda has a ‘B’ grade pedigree rating (metropolitan class inherited racing ability).
Golden Slipper: $15 – $21 currently isn’t huge value, worth seeing again.
Exceed And Excel filly from Group 1 winning Lonhro mare in Beaded. The filly is trained by John O’Shea.
Won Wyong 845m (Oct 4) trial beating some handy city class horses including Golden Shoes in a time 11 lengths above par, second quickest of 16 trials on the day.
Was well backed into favouritism for Flemington Group 3 Nov 5, but never looked comfortable down the straight and finished midfield. Is much better than that and do expect her to be competing in the upcoming top 2yo races.
Resin has a ‘B’ grade pedigree rating (metropolitan class inherited racing ability).
Golden Slipper: $81-$101 currently is value, worth a nibble.
Fastnet Rock filly from the dual G2 winning Fusaichi Pegasus mare in Cats Whisker. The filly is trained by Hayes/Dabernig.
Good Moonee Valley 1000m win (Dec 9) coming from last. Solid tradesman-like win at Caulfield, slowly working through her gears over 1100m on Jan 7. Done little wrong to date though perhaps not as ‘brilliant’ as some others thus far.
Catchy has an ‘A’ grade pedigree rating (Stakes class inherited racing ability).
Golden Slipper: $26 currently isn’t huge value, worth seeing again.
Blue Diamond: $11 current markets.
Commands filly from Canny Lad mare Rum Cruise. Rum Cruise has already produced a Listed winner over 1400m in Limes, who also is by Commands. Demerara is trained by John O’Shea.
Was placed under no pressure winning Warwick Farm 807m trial (Nov 4) in average time, and then won Kembla 900m maiden (Nov 27) in good style, beating the odds on Waterhouse favourite.
Might be a better 3YO, but is a nice enough type and could keep improving.
Demerara has an ‘A’ grade pedigree rating (Stakes class inherited racing ability).
Golden Slipper: Not in current markets.
Blue Diamond: $34 – $51 current markets.
Fastnet Rock filly from the Jolie’s Halo mare in Jolie’s Shinju. She was a $120k purchase from the Inglis Sydney Easter Yearling Sale. The filly is trained by Hayes / Dabernig.
Won a Werribee 1100m 2yo maiden by 4.2 lengths as $1.40 favourite. Hard to line her up against others at this stage, but has done all that has been asked of her.
Formality has a ‘AAA’ grade pedigree rating (G1 inherited racing ability).
Golden Slipper: $26 currently isn’t huge value, worth seeing again.
Blue Diamond: $13-$17 current markets.
Other 2YOs to keep an eye out for in the near future and as they develop into 3YOs are
Groundbreak, Revenire, Perast, Veranillo, Luna Missile, Aspect, Azazel, Dinnigan, French Tune, Can’t Remember, Epidemic, Media Baron and Keeper Keen.
The notable omission from the list is She Will Reign. She is a Manhattan Rain filly trained by Gary Portelli. This filly has done nothing wrong to date. She won a Rosehill 900m trial (Nov 22) by 5.3 lengths in great style and good time, 4.2 lengths above par in seventh quickest time of 11 trials on the day.
She then won a Kembla 1000m maiden by 8.3 lengths (Dec 10) in track record time, and then won the Inglis Classic at Randwick by 4 lengths on Dec 17.
I’m taking a set against her for a few reasons. Firstly, her dam Courgette was a speedy squib who couldn’t get past 1100m. Overall, according to pedigree expert Geoff McMurray, her pedigree is metro class, not Group 1 class. Finally, the top 2YO races are generally won by a select group of topline 2YO trainers, and with no disrespect to the trainer of this filly, he is not currently in that group in my opinion.
For the Golden Slipper, Menari presents as the best value at up to $21 in current pre-post markets. Trekking is another I believe is worth a ticket at around $17. Resin is the bolter at $101, worth a little spec as her trial suggests she is much better than her race performance indicated.
Tulip, Catchy and Formality all look likely types for the Blue Diamond, a race the Hayes/Dabernig stable will have a very strong hand in, but at this point I wouldn’t back any horses for the Blue Diamond at current futures prices. There is insufficient value present for the risk involved.
Dean runs the highly successful Trial Spy service which focuses on identifying winners from analysis of Barrier Trials and Jump-outs around Australia.
The service has made over 580 units profit at 11% POT since starting in 2013.
The service is currently private to protect member dividends, and only opens once a year for new subscribers. You can join the waiting list to be the first notified of the next intake, which will be shortly.
Dean has advised members to back the winners of the last three Golden Slippers, including the trifecta in 2014 and 2015, and the last two Blue Diamond winners, backing the first 2 home last year.
Dean has also consulted leading Breeding & Pedigree expert Geoff McMurray to provide his pedigree analysis on each runner for this article.