goodwood

One of South Australia’s most famous races, The Goodwood is a 1200m Group 1 race held at Morphettville Racecourse. Total prizemoney is $500,000. The race is held during the South Australian Autumn Racing Carnival, where it is the premier event for sprinters.

The Goodwood: Alfie’s preview

Speed The pace is fast here. With the scratching of In The Boat, the leader should come from one of Astrologist, Savatoxl or Free of Debt. Beau Rossa, Aysar and Lombardo have decisions to make and some luck is needed from their barriers. Extreme Warrior may get a good run from behind the speed.

Runner-by-runner

Prices courtesy of TopSport at time of publication.

19 Extreme Warrior [$4.80] seems very short for mine. He’s a talented horse with a top jockey from a top camp, and is all class, but is yet to be proven at this level.

1 Behemoth [$7.50] has the ability to win but hasn’t performed in the last two Goodwoods, finishing 7th and 4th. He’s the top weight here but is a class horse who will get a nice run behind the speed in mid-field. I would love to see him win!

4 The Inferno [$7.50] is an interesting runner as he hasn’t produced in Australia over 1200m – he only has one win from seven starts here. He’s won Group 1s overseas over 1200m, so isn’t without a chance. Will be well back.

8 The Astrologist [$9.50] can sit on the speed from a good draw. He came second in the Group 1 Newmarket ($61 SP) and backed it up with a similar rating in the William Reid to finish 6th. Not without a chance here.

2 Savatoxl [$13] is the returning winner and should get a good run. He does go up 2.5kg from last year, but can carry the weight.

20 General Beau [$13] has a couple of big ratings that can win this. He ran second last start, but the race did not rate well.

15 Bella Nipotina [$14] Will sit midfield off a fast speed. Her last three Group 1 runs have been below her best, with a good Group 2 win in the middle of them. Will have to improve at this level.

13 Lombardo [$15] has a tough barrier and will need some luck early. A chance… if things fall his way.

11 Regardsmaree [$21] finished 15th of 16 in her last Group 1, and will settle back from gate 1. Pretty tough assingment.

18 Frankie Pinot [$21] is a Listed level winner who will need to improve to trouble the best of these.

9 Halvorsen [$26] is a backmarker who came from the back off a very fast speed in the William Reid to finish second at $61. He’s drawn inside which might make it tough.

7 Instant Celebrity [$31] was runner-up in this last year, but will need to improve from her run in the Sangster to figure.

12 Ironclad [$34] is a solid Listed level horse, but a win here would surprise.

16 Aysar [$31] would need to improve a length or two to compete with the best of these.

10 Free Of Debt [$41] can get a good on the speed, but I think will lack the class.

5 Beau Rossa [$41] won the Group 1 Memsie over 1400m, but has a horrific gate here and could be hung wide. Sneaky place chance.

17 Not An Option [$34], 14 Outlaws Revenge [$67] and 21 Manhatten Times [$31] aren’t up to this for mine and are unlikely to figure.

Verdict

This is an extremely tough race… I think I could tip five horses and still miss the winner!

On top: The class runner for me is Extreme Warrior but I think current price is too short. He’s certainly capable of winning, but it all comes down to the odds.

Value: It would be a small outlay race for me given my lack of confidence, and I would be looking at backing The Astrologist, Lombardo and Savatoxl to try to get a result.

Good luck!

Join Alpha Racing now to get best bets from right across Australia and let an expert do all the work for you!

Scratchings: The impact and how to reset your market


We’ve already had a look at framing a market. There’s quite a bit to it but once you have your…Read More

Could you be a professional punter? The 12 things you need to do it


Most people who have ever had a great run on the punt start to wonder if maybe… just maybe… they…Read More

Framing a market: The basis of value betting


Simple guide to framing a market and producing rated prices that allow you to bet to value What do the…Read More