The McEvoy factor

Trainer Peter Snowden has the bookies (and sentimental) favourite for the last Group 1 of the season this Saturday. But punters considering backing the ultra-consistent Beaded in the Winter Stakes will have to take into account the swap of Kerrin McEvoy for Corey Brown. McEvoy may be Darley’s number-one hoop but he cops plenty of criticism from many different quarters of the racing industry and much of that is warranted, while some is a little over the top. So today I wanted to look purely at the facts to see what lessons punters can learn from the McEvoy/Snowden (or should that be McEvoy/Shiekh) alliance. There are four jockeys who have had at least 200 rides for Snowden and the record for each jockey is below, looking at both proportionate and level stakes. Target betting (aka proportionate staking) involves betting to return the same amount regardless of the odds of the horse. In laymans terms, you outlay more on fancied horses and less on longshots. Level stakes (aka flat betting) is simply outlaying the same amount on every selection, regardless of price. The following charts compare Kerrin McEvoy, Josh Parr, Mark Zahra and Corey Brown: Those results are damning to say the least. Whichever way you look at it, the other three jockeys with 200+ Snowden rides all have much better winning percentages and profit figures. Whether McEvoy is an above average rider or not is a matter of opinion and every punter has plenty of those. But what can’t be refuted is that his overall record from a punter’s perspective is poor in relative and absolute terms. Snowden/McEvoy runners lose 20% on turnover. Snowden/non-McEvoy runners lose 5%. The argument ends right there. Good punting David Duffield