The punting premiership

Who are the premier trainers in Australia and how do you assess the best of the best? Over the next few weeks we’re going to take a look at the results of the racing season just finished, but our assessment will be quite different to what you see in traditional media where it’s simply most wins, wins. The problem with this approach is using unfiltered statistics such as number of wins (in isolation) is not a true indication of a trainer’s ability, particularly from a punter’s perspective. To counter that, we are going to put more emphasis on the results punters achieved when backing the runners of these trainers.And we will do so by looking at Profit on Turnover with a proportionate staking (aka target betting) approach. The reason we have done this is because it’s unfair to gauge a trainer’s performance using a flat betting approach where the same stake is outlayed on a 100/1 shot as one at even money. So we’ll look at Profit on Turnover for all of their runners, favourites and also last start winners. This last stat is a valuable metric because it shows the ability of a trainer to maintain a horse’s winning performance and back a horse up next start. Admittedly there are all sorts of ways to use statistics but we believe these measures to be a strong guide to the trainers’ relative success from our perspective, which is obviously a punting one. So let’s take a look at the top 10 in the Victorian Trainer’s Premiership and add some important punting statistics:

Victorian trainers There were some very interesting points to note from this analysis:

  • Peter Moody – superb strike-rate and profit figures and an outstanding all-round performance again. despite his unprecedented dominance, it’s quite amazing that the market actually underestimates his stable.
  • Darren Weir – under-performed across all categories and the record of Weir’s Last Start winners was exceptionally poor.
  • Mick Price – a punters pal with a good record right across the board.
  • David Hayes – has been overbet for many years and while that was the case again this year, Hayes favourites actually performed well.
  • Lee Freedman – another poor year from the Hall Of Fame trainer and considering the heights he has reached in his career it’s not a huge surprise that he’s decided to hand over the reins at Markdel.
  • Robbie Grifffiths – dismal overall record with the obvious exception being his ability to get last start winners to repeat.
  • Robert Smerdon – whichever way you look at it, his stable is seriously overbet by punters.
  • Peter Snowden – solid winning strike-rate but only average profit performance.
  • Leon Corstens – Team Corstens offered great value to punters.
  • Mike Maroney – solid all-round performance from the ex-Kiwi.

Moody, Price and Corstens were the clear stand-outs for punters betting on Victorian racing last season while Lee Freedman and Robert Smerdon were at the other end of the scale.