TJ Smith Stakes: Pro punter race preview and top picks

One of Australia premier sprinting races, the TJ Smith Stakes is run at Randwick Racecourse over 1200 metres at weight-for-age. Total prizemoney is $2.5 million, making it Australia’s richest sprint race outside of The Everest. The race is one of the main features on the first day of The Championships, which is the highlight of the Sydney Autumn carnival.

TJ Smith Stakes 2022: Alfie’s preview

Track It’s Groundhog Day… Heavy. Again. It’s a Heavy 10 now, with more rain predicted in the leadup to the race. It might favour those that are forward of midfield and closer, but it’s hard to say this far out.

Speed There’s a bit here, naturally. Expect Eduardo and Nature Strip to take it up. The tempo will be above average.

Runner-by-runner

Prices courtesy of TopSport at time of publication.

Nature Strip [$2.80] The only query on Nature Strip is his poor performance last start, and the bottomless track explained the poor run. Will he win this? I would never say no, but I couldn’t take him at the current short odds.

Eduardo [$3.80] is a legitmate top liner who has shown he can handle the current bottomless tracks in Sydney. I have him slightly ahead of Nature Strip on last start.

Shelby Sixtysix [$6.50] Will the fairy tale end? He’ll need to rise again to knock the top two off, but we know he can handle the wet.

Righto Twitter… who wins the TJ Smith on Saturday?

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Masked Crusader [$9] is third-up and his last two preps have seen a big spike third-up. He would need to improve of last two starts and in the wet.

Roch’n’Horse [$15] surprised everyone at $101 last start. It would really surprise me if she could do it again.

Overpass [$16] would need to improve his run from last start at this level.

Rule Of Law [$71] is just a bit below the topliners in this race.

I don’t give the rest a chance here, they’re simply outclassed: Count De Rupee [$41], Zoutori [$91], Belluci Babe [$21] and Paulele [$14]

Verdict

No real surprises here. I simply have it down to Nature Strip and Eduardo, but I would want more than the current odds on offer. They are the two stars in the race with the best figures, so they would have to be off their game for another horse to win.