Trainers: Hot or not?

Last week we looked at the best (and worst) jockeys in terms of punting returns over the last three months

Today the focus switches to trainers and once again our measuring stick is Profit on Turnover since that is far more relevant to punters than simply winning strike rates. Just because a trainer has a 20% winning strike-rate does not mean they have achieved better returns for punters than a stable with a 15% strike-rate.

Although I must stress that the results below are more a starting point for deeper analysis rather than anything to base your betting on. Stats are just one small piece of the pie and we are dealing with very small sample sizes for this research. Smart betting decisions are based on compiling, assessing and gaining insight from a broad range of data.

Firstly, the profitability of NSW trainers in the period December 2012 to February 2013 inclusive. We use best tote dividends and proportionate staking so the all horses/all trainers benchmark is -10% Profit on Turnover.

Trainer       Runners       Wins       Win %       POT
Ms G Markwell       97       15       15       58.3
J Pride       85       18       21       52.8
T Sutherland       111       11       9       40.2
R J Price       72       8       11       24.9
L J Griffith       88       12       13       17.7
K Lees       130       26       20       15.5
N Olive       73       9       12       11.8
J B Cummings       81       12       14       6.6
Bjorn Baker       93       18       19       -0.7
B D Bellamy       94       9       9       -2.3
D P Smith       76       10       13       -8.1
G Portelli       70       7       10       -8.9
P Snowden       218       34       15       -10.7
A J Cummings       111       10       9       -13.6
D Payne       82       9       10       -13.9
C Waller       316       46       14       -15.6
J O’Shea       93       16       17       -15.9
G Ryan       101       11       10       -22.5
G H Walter       157       17       10       -32.5
G D Yorke       79       5       6       -36.5
Ms G Waterhouse       151       20       13       -39.7
P M Perry       139       10       7       -41.3
C E Conners       84       7       8       -42
All trainers       10       -10

(Minimum 70 runners metro/country/provincial)

Gwenda Markwell heads the list but Joe Pride wasn’t far behind and had better than a winner every five runners. Kris Lees’ recent run is well above his overall career record, whilst the one and only Bart Cummings is still doing well.

The worst stables from a punter’s perspective were the Conners, Perry and Waterhouse yards. The market has dramatically over rated their runners during the last 3 months with all recording a rate of return around four times worse than the average.

Now let’s look at their Victorian counterparts:

Trainer       Runners       Wins       Win %       POT
Anthony Freedman       79       19       24       24
M W & J Hawkes       74       19       25       23
L Oliver       95       21       22       19
M Kent       91       22       24       16
C & Cindy Alderson       93       12       12       7
R E Laing       83       8       9       7
P G Carey       75       11       14       7
B O Cox       83       13       15       4
M G Price       169       37       21       4
P Moody       235       53       22       -1
J Warren       92       13       14       -3
M Ellerton & S Zahra       132       19       14       -3
R D Griffiths       231       40       17       -4
G E Eurell       109       16       14       -8
D O’Sullivan       87       9       10       -15
T & Karina O’Sul       89       8       8       -16
D O’Brien       104       15       14       -17
D Hayes       280       36       12       -20
D K Weir       290       46       15       -20
M D Moroney       114       13       11       -21
P Snowden       103       17       16       -24
R W Smerdon       129       16       12       -27
B & S Wilde       71       5       7       -52
All trainers       11       -10

In contrast to the last few years of Lee Freedman’s reign, his brother Anthony has been well and truly under estimated by punters. Hawkes is another hall of fame name and their family operation has been achieving excellent results. Both of those stables achieved basically a winner every four runners.

Bill and Symon Wilde suffered through a very tough period and some high profile trainers underperformed relative to market expectations.

Trainers form can fluctuate throughout the year and the market can correct itself quite quickly. So we will report back on a regular basis to take a fresh look at the hottest trainers and jockeys.

Good luck
David Duffield